1995—2021年广东“龙舟水”期间灾情分析  

Analysis of Disaster during “Dragon Boat Water” Period in Guangdong from 1995 to 2021

作　　者：姜晓岑 胡娅敏[2] 黄锋 莫伟强 JIANG Xiaocen;HU Yamin;HUANG Feng;MO Weiqiang(Meteorological Bureau of Dongguan,Guangdong,Dongguan 523082;Guangdong Provincial Climate Center,Guangzhou 510640)

机构地区：[1]广东省东莞市气象局,东莞523082 [2]广东省气候中心,广州510640

出　　处：《气象科技》2024年第3期415-423,共9页Meteorological Science and Technology

基　　金：国家自然科学基金气象联合基金(U2142205);广东省基础与应用基础研究重大项目(2020B0301030004);2019年广东省地方标准制修订计划项目(GD/TC102);中国气象局创新发展专项(CXFZ2023J027)、中国气象局预报员专项(CMAYBY2020-094)资助。

摘　　要：针对广东“龙舟水”灾情的灾前预估和灾后快速估计的需求,本文利用1995—2021年广东“龙舟水”期间降雨和暴雨洪涝灾害数据,计算“龙舟水”综合灾情指数,应用百分位法将其划分为轻、中、重3个等级;并对广东“龙舟水”的灾情特征、降雨与灾情的关系进行分析。结果表明:(1)1995—2021年广东“龙舟水”期间降雨强度、范围、强降雨频率及持续时间的峰值集中在2005—2010年,灾情强峰值出现在2005—2008年,峰值区间较一致;2008年灾情最重,2008年后综合灾情强度呈下降趋势,近10 a(2012—2021年)各灾情也呈下降趋势,以倒塌房屋数、受灾人口数、农作物受灾面积降幅最明显,直接经济损失降幅较小。(2)农作物受灾面积与各降雨指标的相关性最大,其次为受灾人口数和直接经济损失;综合灾情等级、直接经济损失主要受降雨强度、强降雨频率影响,受灾人口数、农作物受灾面积灾情主要受降雨强度、降雨范围影响,倒塌房屋数、死亡人数灾情主要受强降雨的频率影响。(3)建立的“龙舟水”平均总降雨量与灾情的拟合关系方程,能较好地估计“龙舟水”综合灾情等级和灾情数据。Due to the need for pre-disaster prediction and rapid post-disaster estimation of disaster situations during the“Dragon Boat Water”period(from late May to mid-June)in Guangdong,the integrated disaster index(IDI)of“Dragon Boat Water”is calculated in this study,by using rainfall,heavy rainfall flood disaster data during the“Dragon Boat Water”period in Guangdong spanning from 1995 to 2021.Then,IDI is classified into light,medium,and heavy levels,employing the quantile method.The study focuses on analysing disaster features and the relationship between rainfall and disaster situations.The key results are as follows:To begin with,the years 2005 to 2010 are the peak of rainfall intensity,rainfall range,heavy rainfall frequency,and duration of the Guangdong“Dragon Boat Water”from 1995 to 2021.The peak of disaster intensity is in 2005-2008.The two peak intervals are relatively consistent.Following 2008,the heaviest disaster situation year,there is a downward tendency in integrated disaster intensity.Over the past decade(from 2012 to 2021),all five kinds of disasters also show a downward tendency.The number of collapsed buildings,the number of affected people,and affected crop areas show the most pronounced reductions,while direct economic losses display a more moderate decrease.Furthermore,the correlation between affected crop areas and rainfall factors is the highest,followed by the number of affected people and direct economic losses.The levels of integrated disaster and direct economic losses are primarily affected by the intensity of rainfall and the frequency of heavy rainfall.Meanwhile,the number of affected people and affected crop areas are primarily influenced by both the intensity and range of rainfall.The number of collapsed buildings and the number of deaths are mainly influenced by the frequency of heavy rainfall.Lastly,the established fitting equation between the average total rainfall and disaster of“Dragon Boat Water”shows reliability,by estimating the integrated disaster level and dis

关 键 词：龙舟水 灾情特征分析 灾情估计 

分 类 号：P426[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]