核泄漏大气扩散与环境风险模拟:以山东半岛为例  

Atmospheric diffusion and environmental risk simulation of nuclear leakage:A case study of Shandong Peninsula,China

作　　者：单皖粤 梁玉函 王刚 伯鑫 徐鑫 SHAN Wanyue;LIANG Yuhan;WANG Gang;BO Xin;XU Xin(Department of Environmental Science and Engineering,Beijing University of Chemical Technology,Beijing 100029;BUCT Institute for Carbon-neutrality of Chinese Industries,Beijing University of Chemical Technology,Beijing 100029;Trinity Consultants Inc.,Hangzhou 310012)

机构地区：[1]北京化工大学环境科学与工程系,北京100029 [2]北京化工大学北化中国工业碳中和研究院,北京100029 [3]三捷环境工程咨询(杭州)有限公司,杭州310012

出　　处：《环境科学学报》2024年第6期292-299,共8页Acta Scientiae Circumstantiae

基　　金：国家自然科学基金(No.72174125);中央高校基本科研业务费资助项目(No.buctrc202133)。

摘　　要：以山东半岛为研究区域,利用CALPUFF模型定量模拟了2018年1月1日—12月31日虚拟核电站在不同沿海网格内的放射性核素泄漏扩散情况.在此基础上,采用综合考虑人群影响与污染物浓度情况下的网格环境风险值的计算方法,表征核泄漏事故过程中潜在的核素环境风险影响,从而得到研究区域内的最优和最不利的厂址布点.此外,结合最优和最不利的厂址所在区域的风场资料,分析了不同季节的I-131的大气扩散情况.结果表明,位于威海市的44号网格总环境风险值为1.73×10^(10),总环境风险最低,为本研究中核电站的最优布局点.而位于青岛市的35号网格总环境风险值为9.98×10^(11),总环境风险值最高,不适合作为核电站布局点.I-131的大气扩散主要受所在区域主导风向的影响,最优和最不利的情景中I-131的月均浓度最大值均出现在夏季.对于核电厂的选址,应综合考虑风向、地形和人口因素,人口少、处于主导风向下风向的沿海地区更适合作为核电厂厂址.研究结果可为定量评估核电站布局选址的潜在核泄漏环境风险提供方法学参考,并为核电站现有的布局和选址方法提供新思路和技术支持.Taking the Shandong Peninsula as the research area,this study used the CALPUFF model to quantitatively simulate the radionuclide leakage and diffusion from a virtual nuclear power plant in different coastal grids from January 1 to December 31,2018.On this basis,a grid health risk value calculation method that considers both population and pollutant concentration was used to characterize the potential environmental health risks of nuclides in the process of nuclear leakage accidents,thereby determining the optimal and most unfavorable plant locations in the study area.Additionally,atmospheric dispersion of I-131 in different seasons was analyzed by combining wind field data of the optimal and least favorable sites.Results showed that grid 44 in Weihai City had the lowest total environmental risk(environmental risk value:1.73×10^(10)),meaning that it was the optimal location for a nuclear power plant.The total environmental risk value of grid 35(in Qingdao City)was the highest(environmental risk value:9.98×10^(11)),meaning that it was a location unsuitable for a nuclear power plant in this study.Atmospheric dispersion of I-131 is mainly affected by the regional prevailing wind direction,and the maximum monthly mean concentration of I-131 under both the optimal and the least favorable scenarios occurred in summer.The siting of nuclear power plants should consider wind direction,terrain,and population factors.Coastal areas with small populations in the downwind direction of the prevailing winds are most suitable for nuclear power plants.The research results represent a methodological reference for quantitative assessment of the potential environmental risks of nuclear power plant layout and site selection,and provide new ideas and technical support for existing layouts and site selection methods of nuclear power plants.

关 键 词：核泄漏事故 放射性核素扩散 CALPUFF模型 厂址布局优化 

分 类 号：X820.4[环境科学与工程—环境工程] X507