联合的力量:农社利益联结对农户信贷违约风险的缓释效应与机制  

The power of unity:mitigating effect and mechanism of the interest linkage between agricultural cooperatives and farmers on farmers’credit default risk

作　　者：申云 卢跃 SHEN Yun;LU Yue(School of Economics,Sichuan Agricultural University,Chengdu 611130,China)

机构地区：[1]四川农业大学经济学院,四川成都611130

出　　处：《农林经济管理学报》2024年第3期337-346,共10页Journal of Agro-Forestry Economics and Management

基　　金：国家社会科学基金一般项目(23BJL103);四川省自然科学基金面上项目(2023NSFSC0522);四川省社会科学基金一般项目(SCJJ23ND170)。

摘　　要：基于农民合作社联农带农的视角,采用面板Probit模型、内生扩展模型(ERM)和中介效应模型分析农社利益联结对农户参与农民合作社供应链信贷的违约风险缓释效应及其作用机制。结果表明:提高农社利益联结程度能够显著降低农户信贷违约风险;相较于利润返还和技术培训联结方式,融资支持与订单销售联结对农户信贷违约风险缓释效果更好,通过一系列稳健性检验结果依然可靠。机制分析显示,农社利益联结能够通过增收机制和非正规风险分担机制增强农户还款能力和私人借贷能力,从而促进农户履约还款。异质性分析发现,农户家庭收入结构、合作社领办主体及社员规模的差异,也是影响农民合作社联农带农的重要因素,并导致农户参与农民合作社供应链信贷的违约风险缓释效应表现出明显的异质性。据此,建议加强农民合作社供应链金融联农带农服务体系建设,打造农业供应链金融信用联合体,不断完善农村普惠金融信用生态圈。From the perspective of farmers’cooperatives connecting and leading farmers,this study adopts panel Probit model,endogenous expansion model(ERM),and mediation effect model to analyze the risk mitigation effect and its mechanism of the interest linkage between agricultural cooperatives and farmers on farmers’default risk in participating in supply chain credit of farmers’cooperatives.The results show that increasing the degree of interest linkage between agricultural cooperatives and farmers can significantly reduce farmers’credit default risk.Compared with profit return and technical training linkage methods,financing support and order sales linkage have better effects on mitigating farmers’credit default risk,which are still reliable after a series of robustness tests.The mechanism analysis indicates that the interest linkage between agricultural cooperatives and farmers can enhance farmers’repayment ability and private lending ability through income-increasing mechanism and informal risk-sharing mechanism,thereby promoting farmers to repay their loans on schedule.Heterogeneity analysis finds that differences in farmers’household income structure,the leading subject of cooperatives,and the scale of members are also important factors affecting farmers’cooperatives connecting and leading farmers,and lead to significant heterogeneity in the risk mitigation effect of farmers’participation in supply chain credit of farmers’cooperatives.Therefore,it is recommended to strengthen the construction of supply chain financial services system of farmers’cooperatives connecting and leading farmers,build agricultural supply chain financial credit consortiums,and constantly improve the credit ecosystem of inclusive rural finance.

关 键 词：农业供应链信贷 农社利益联结 信贷风险 联农带农 

分 类 号：F832.5[经济管理—金融学]