基于随机效用的稻农有机肥替代化肥行为研究  

Rice farmers’behavior of replacing chemical fertilizer with organic fertilizer,a study based on random utility

作　　者：赵玉[1] 吴志明 陈霖波 ZHAO Yu;WU Zhiming;CHEN Linbo(Center for Research on Resource and Environmental Economics,East China University of Technology,Nanchang 330013,China)

机构地区：[1]东华理工大学资源与环境经济研究中心,江西南昌330013

出　　处：《农林经济管理学报》2024年第3期347-356,共10页Journal of Agro-Forestry Economics and Management

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(72063001,71503038);国家社会科学基金项目(22BJL017);江西省高校人文社会科学项目(GL20138)。

摘　　要：基于鄱阳湖流域水稻主产区10个县(区)的571份有效样本数据,在有机肥替代化肥的行为分析框架下采用随机效用理论构建双变量Probit模型,实证分析期望收益、风险态度等因素对稻农用有机肥替代化肥行为的影响,并通过分组回归讨论技术培训和成本感知对这一替代行为的调节效应。结果表明:1)减施化肥和使用有机肥行为存在相关性,减施化肥的稻农使用有机肥的概率为0.56,使用有机肥的稻农减施化肥的概率为0.41,稻农用有机肥替代化肥的概率约为0.21。2)期望收益、风险厌恶、小概率偏好越高,稻农使用有机肥替代化肥的概率越低,而损失厌恶程度越高,稻农使用有机肥替代化肥的概率越高。3)参加过施肥技术培训的稻农更倾向于使用有机肥替代化肥,化肥感知成本的提升会增加稻农使用有机肥的概率。据此,从保障绿色施肥收入、降低绿色施肥成本和加强技术宣传推广等方面提出政策建议。Based on 571 valid sample data from 10 counties in the main rice-producing areas of Poyang Lake Basin,the bi-variate Probit model was constructed by using random utility theory under the behavioral analysis framework of organic fertilizer replacing chemical fertilizer,and the effects of expected return,risk attitude and other factors on the behavior of organic fertilizer replacing chemical fertilizer in rice farming were empirically analyzed,and the moderating effect of technical training and cost perception on this substitution behavior was discussed through grouped regression.The results show that:1)There exists an incomplete substitutional relationship between chemical fertilizer application reduction and organic fertilizer use.The probability is 0.56 to use organic fertilizer for rice farmers who reduce chemical fertilizer,0.41 to reduce chemical fertilizer for rice farmers who use organic fertilizer,and 0.21 for rice farmers substituting organic fertilizer for chemical fertilizer.2)Farmers with higher expected return,risk aversion,and small probability preference have lower probability of substituting organic fertilizer with chemical fertilizer,while the probability is higher for farmers with high loss aversion.3)Farmers who attended fertilizer training and thought fertilizer price was too high are more inclined to substitute organic fertilizer with chemical fertilizer.Policy suggestions were accordingly put forward from the aspects of ensuring the income of using green fertilization,reducing the cost of green fertilization and strengthening the technical publicity and popularization.

关 键 词：随机效用 施肥行为 双变量Probit 鄱阳湖流域 

分 类 号：F326.11[经济管理—产业经济]