生育性别偏好如何影响育龄女性的生育意愿?——基于社会经济地位的遮掩效应  

How Does Birth Sex Preference Affect Fertility Intentions of Women in Childbearing Age Estimating Based on the Masking Effects of Socioeconomic Status

作　　者：李从容[1] 高丽霞 LI Cong-rong;GAO Li-xia(School of Public Administration,Xi'an University of Architecture and Technology,Xi'an 710000)

机构地区：[1]西安建筑科技大学公共管理学院,陕西西安710000

出　　处：《南方人口》2024年第3期27-39,共13页South China Population

基　　金：国家社会科学基金项目“老年人消费安全现状与社会支持系统建构研究”(编号:18XRK001)的阶段性成果。

摘　　要：在逐渐宽松的生育政策背景下,生育性别偏好会对育龄女性生育意愿产生影响。本文基于CFPS2018数据,采用泊松回归和Bootstrap方法,探讨了生育性别偏好、社会经济地位与育龄女性生育意愿三者之间的关系,并分析了生育性别偏好对不同群体女性生育意愿的空间异质性影响。研究发现:不同生育性别偏好对女性生育意愿的影响方向和强度不同。相较于无性别偏好,男孩偏好整体上对育龄女性生育意愿表现出显著的负向抑制作用,然而该抑制作用在东部和西部农村地区不显著;儿女双全偏好整体上表现出显著的正向促进作用,且在东部城镇地区促进作用更大;女孩偏好整体上对女性生育意愿影响不显著,然而在东部城镇地区表现出对生育意愿显著的抑制作用,而在西部农村地区发挥着显著正向促进作用。此外,社会经济地位在性别偏好和生育意愿之间发挥了遮掩效应,受教育水平的提升会弱化男孩偏好对生育意愿的抑制作用,收入水平的提高会削弱女孩偏好对生育意愿的促进作用。在当前生育率持续走低的严峻形势下,建议充分尊重女性生育自主权,并且实施区域差异化的生育支持措施以提高女性生育意愿。In the context of a gradually relaxed fertility policy,birth sex preference can be a important factor affecting the fertility intention of women of childbearing age.Based on the data from the 2018 China Household Tracking Survey,the paper explores the relationship among the birth gender preference,socioeconomic status and fertility intention of women of childbearing age by Poisson regression and Bootstrap methods,and the spatial heterogeneity of the impact of birth gender preference on the childbearing women’s fertility intention of different groups is further estimated.The findings show that different birth sex preferences influence the childbearing women’s fertility intentions by different directions and intensity.Compared with the childbearing women without birth sex preference,those with sun-preference shows a significant inhibitory effect on their fertility intentions,however such inhibitory effect is not significant in the rural areas in the east and west.Besides the preference for both son and daughter shows a significant positive promotional effect on the fertility intentions which is more significant in the eastern urban areas.Meanwhile,the daughter preference has no significant effect on the fertility intention of women in general,but shows a significant inhibitory effect on the fertility intention in the eastern urban areas and a significant influence on the fertility intention of women in different groups.daughter preference has no significant effect on women's fertility intentions,but girls'preference has a significant inhibitory effect on fertility intentions in the eastern urban areas,and a significant positive promotional effect in the western rural areas on the contrary.Further study shows that socioeconomic status has a masking effects on the effect of birth sex preferences on fertility intentions,higher levels of education weakens the inhibitory effect of son preferences on fertility intentions and higher levels of income weakens the promotional effect of daughter preferences on fertility i

关 键 词：生育意愿 生育性别偏好 社会经济地位 育龄女性 遮掩效应 

分 类 号：C92-05[社会学—人口学]