面向飞机装配批架次完工时间的仿真预测方法  

Completion Time Simulation Prediction Method for Aircraft Assembly Process with Batch and Sortie

作　　者：蒋昌健 樊虎 罗陶 袁文 何泽豪 Jiang Changjian;Fan Hu;Luo Tao;Yuan Wen;He Zehao(School of Mechanical Engineering,Northwestern Polytechnical University,Xi'an 710072,China;AVIC Xi'an Air-craft Industry Group Company Ltd.,Xi'an 710089,China)

机构地区：[1]西北工业大学机电学院,陕西西安710072 [2]中航西安飞机工业集团股份有限公司,陕西西安710089

出　　处：《系统仿真学报》2024年第6期1404-1413,共10页Journal of System Simulation

基　　金：国家重点研发计划(2019YFB1707501)。

摘　　要：针对传统离散事件仿真方法缺乏对产品间差异化分析的局限性,提出一种面向飞机装配批架次作业过程的仿真预测方法。围绕飞机架次标签,研究对批架次装配作业过程中各类基本要素与交互关系的形式化定义,由此完成站位、整线仿真模型的构建;研究支持产品差异化分析的仿真推进框架与执行机制;以仿真结果数据为基础,提出基于区间估计法的架次完工时间预测方法。实验结果表明:该方法能准确地输出各架次预计完工时间的置信区间,为现场提供可靠的评估依据。Aiming at the product differentiation analysis limitation of traditional discrete event simulation method,a simulation prediction method for aircraft assembly process with batch and sortie is proposed.Around the aircraft sortie number,the formal definition of various basic elements and interactions in the assembly process with batch and sortie is studied,and the construction of station and whole line simulation model is carried out.The simulation promotion framework and execution mechanism supporting the product differentiation analysis are studied.Based on the simulation results,a method for predicting the completion time of sorties based on interval estimation method is proposed.The test results of the historical sorties data show that the proposed simulation prediction method can accurately output the confidence interval of the estimated completion time of each sortie,and can provide the reliable evaluation for the site.

关 键 词：飞机装配 批架次 离散事件仿真 仿真过程控制 预计完工时间 

分 类 号：TP391.9[自动化与计算机技术—计算机应用技术]