线上销售能否改善资本市场信息环境——基于分析师盈余预测的证据  

Can Online Sales Improve the Information Environment of Capital Market?Evidence from Analyst Forecasts

作　　者：徐悦 潘奕君 刘运国[3,4] Xu Yue;Pan Yijun;Liu Yunguo(School of Economics and Management,South China Normal University;School of Management,Guangdong University of Technology;School of Business,Center for Accounting,Finance and Institutions,Sun Yat-sen University)

机构地区：[1]华南师范大学经济与管理学院 [2]广东工业大学管理学院 [3]中山大学管理学院 [4]中山大学现代会计与财务研究中心

出　　处：《南开管理评论》2024年第3期139-149,I0025,I0026,共13页Nankai Business Review

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(71872187、71902191、72272156)资助。

摘　　要：基于2015—2019年上市公司通过互联网平台进行线上销售的独特数据,本文研究了线上销售对分析师盈余预测的影响。研究发现:(1)上市公司进行线上销售显著降低了分析师盈余预测误差和分歧度,提升了分析师盈余预测质量,且上述结果在仅保留线上销售行业和PSM匹配后的样本、采用Heckman两阶段模型等方式缓解内生性问题后仍然成立;(2)线上销售对分析师盈余预测质量的提升作用在分析师公开获取信息渠道较少、获取信息成本较高时更为显著;(3)机制检验发现,线上销售可以通过降低盈余波动,或者抑制盈余管理以改善公司盈余信息质量,进而降低分析师盈余预测误差和分歧度。研究结果表明,线上销售不仅增加了分析师获取公司特质信息的来源,而且一定程度上改善了盈余信息质量,有助于分析师发挥资本市场信息中介的重要作用,提高资本市场效率。Enterprises’use of the Internet for business model innovation is an important force in promoting the high-quality development of China’s economy.In recent years,the scale of online sales in China has maintained rapid growth,and has become an important part of the digital economy with the largest development scale,the fastest growth rate,the widest coverage and the most active entrepreneurship and innovation.The Internet has not only changed the operating rules of business entities,but also the large amount of real-time transaction data generated by online sales has enriched the information set of the capital market,affecting the behavior and efficiency of all participants in the capital market in information transmission and information acquisition.However,the existing literature mainly explores the impact of online sales in the field of e-commerce from the perspective of the interaction between companies and consumers, and less discusses the impact of the innovation of the Internet business model on the allocation efficiency of the capital market and the behavior of all participants. Based on the unique data of online sales of listed companies through Internet platforms from 2015-2019, this paper explores the im-pact of online sales as an important practice of Internet business model innovation on the surplus forecasting behavior of analysts who are important information intermediaries in the capital market. The empirical study finds that online sales significantly improve the quality of analysts’ surplus forecasts. Further research finds that the effect of online sales on the quality of analysts’ surplus forecasts is more significant when analysts’ public access to information is low and the cost of obtaining information is high;online sales can improve the quality of surplus information by reducing surplus volatility and suppressing surplus management, which in turn reduces analysts’ surplus forecast errors. The research results show that online sales can affect analysts’ forecasts in terms of �

关 键 词：互联网+ 线上销售 分析师 盈余预测 

分 类 号：F724.6[经济管理—产业经济] F832.51F275