政府管制与实际汇率形成规律研究  

An Analysis on Government Regulation and Real Exchange Rate Determination

作　　者：杨长江[1] 王卓立 陶鹏滔 YANG Changjiang;WANG Zhuoli;TAO Pengtao

机构地区：[1]复旦大学经济学院 [2]哥伦比亚大学商学院 [3]苏州市吴江区财政局

出　　处：《国际贸易问题》2024年第5期123-141,共19页Journal of International Trade

摘　　要：本文首次将经济自由指数引入实际汇率理论研究,分析了政府管制政策作为一个整体影响实际汇率的理论机制与经验证据。通过基于次优理论所构建的实际汇率决定模型发现,在欠发达经济体存在诸多制度缺陷与市场失灵问题时,政府管制会使得该经济体实际汇率贬值从而提升其国际竞争力,但这一政策效果会随着经济发展水平的提升而逐步减弱,进入高收入阶段后则可能会带来实际汇率高估。在实证分析中,采用1990—2020年165个经济体的面板数据验证了上述理论猜想。本文研究结果为厘清政府管制在实际汇率形成中的作用提供了理论依据,同时也有助于认识中国进一步深化改革、保持国际竞争力等问题。This paper introduces an economic freedom index into the study of real exchange rate,for the first time,examining the impact of government regulation as a whole on the real exchange rate theoretically and empirically.Drawing on the second-best theo-ry,the real exchange rate determination model demonstrates that when there are many in-stitutional weaknesses and market failures in the less-developed economies,government regulation will depreciate the real exchange rate of the economy and enhance its interna-tional competitiveness.However,this effect gradually weakens with the upgrading of econ-omy,and may lead to the overvaluation of the real exchange rate after reaching the high-income stage.The empirical analysis confirms the above theoretical hypothesis through panel data consisting of 165 economies from 1990 to 2020.The results of this paper pro-vide a theoretical basis for clarifying the role of government regulation in the formation of real exchange rate,and also help to understand China's further deepening reform and maintaining international competitiveness.

关 键 词：政府管制 实际汇率 经济发展阶段 

分 类 号：F831.6[经济管理—金融学]