Mixed D-vine copula-based conditional quantile model for stochastic monthly streamflow simulation  

作　　者：Wen-zhuo Wang Zeng-chuan Dong Tian-yan Zhang Li Ren Lian-qing Xue Teng Wu 

机构地区：[1]College of Water Resources and Hydrology,Hohai University,Nanjing 210098,China [2]Yellow River Research Center,Hohai University,Nanjing 210098,China

出　　处：《Water Science and Engineering》2024年第1期13-20,共8页水科学与水工程（英文版）

基　　金：supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant No.52109010);the Postdoctoral Science Foundation of China(Grant No.2021M701047);the China National Postdoctoral Program for Innovative Talents(Grant No.BX20200113).

摘　　要：Copula functions have been widely used in stochastic simulation and prediction of streamflow.However,existing models are usually limited to single two-dimensional or three-dimensional copulas with the same bivariate block for all months.To address this limitation,this study developed a mixed D-vine copula-based conditional quantile model that can capture temporal correlations.This model can generate streamflow by selecting different historical streamflow variables as the conditions for different months and by exploiting the conditional quantile functions of streamflows in different months with mixed D-vine copulas.The up-to-down sequential method,which couples the maximum weight approach with the Akaike information criteria and the maximum likelihood approach,was used to determine the structures of multivariate Dvine copulas.The developed model was used in a case study to synthesize the monthly streamflow at the Tangnaihai hydrological station,the inflow control station of the Longyangxia Reservoir in the Yellow River Basin.The results showed that the developed model outperformed the commonly used bivariate copula model in terms of the performance in simulating the seasonality and interannual variability of streamflow.This model provides useful information for water-related natural hazard risk assessment and integrated water resources management and utilization.

关 键 词：Stochastic monthly streamflow simulation Mixed D-vine copula Conditional quantile model Up-to-down sequential method Tangnaihai hydrological station 

分 类 号：S423[农业科学—植物保护] S513