Pathway Planning of Nuclear Power Development Incorporating Assessment of Nuclear Event Risk  

作　　者：Xinxin Yang Yusheng Xue Bin Cai 

机构地区：[1]School of Electrical Engineering,Southeast University,Nanjing,China,and they are also with State Grid Electric Power Research Institute(NARI Group Corporation),Nanjing,China [2]State Key Laboratory of Smart Grid Protection and Operation Control,Nanjing,China [3]State Grid Electric Power Research Institute(NARI Group Corporation),Nanjing,China

出　　处：《Journal of Modern Power Systems and Clean Energy》2024年第2期500-513,共14页现代电力系统与清洁能源学报（英文）

基　　金：supported in part by the NARI Group Corporation Science and Technology project“Research on Coordinated Development of Carbon Emission Reduction and Carbon Sink Enhancement”。

摘　　要：The nuclear event risk(NER)is an important and disputed factor that should be reasonably considered when planning the pathway of nuclear power development(NPD)to assess the benefits and risks of developing nuclear power more objectively.This paper aims to explore the impact of nuclear events on NPD pathway planning.The influence of nuclear events is quantified as a monetary risk component,and an optimization model that incorporates the NER in the objective function is proposed.To optimize the pathway of NPD in the lowcarbon transition course of power supply structure evolution,a simulation model is built to deduce alternative NPD pathways and corresponding power supply evolution scenarios under the constraint of an exogenously assigned carbon emission pathway(CEP);moreover,a method is proposed to describe the CEP by superimposing the maximum carbon emission space and each carbon emission reduction(CER)component,and various CER components are clustered considering the emission reduction characteristics and resource endowments of different power generation technologies.A case study is conducted to explore the impact of NER and its risk valuation uncertainty on NPD pathway planning.The method presented in this paper allows the impact of nuclear events on NPD pathway planning to be quantified and improves the level of coordinated optimization of benefits and risks.

关 键 词：Low-carbon transition power supply structure evolution nuclear power development(NPD) quantitative analysis nuclear event risk evaluation 

分 类 号：TM623[电气工程—电力系统及自动化]