公路货物运输量统计测算方法综述  

A Review of Statistical Calculation Methods for Highway Freight Transport Volume

作　　者：乌若愚 邵春福[1] 刘雅楠 WU Ruo-yu;SHAO Chun-fu;LIU Ya-nan

机构地区：[1]北京交通大学综合交通运输大数据应用技术交通运输行业重点实验室,北京100040 [2]内蒙古自治区交通运输事业发展中心,内蒙古呼和浩特010020

出　　处：《内蒙古公路与运输》2024年第2期39-44,共6页Highways & Transportation in Inner Mongolia

基　　金：内蒙古自治区交通运输厅建设科技项目(NJ-2023-10)。

摘　　要：为全面总结公路货物运输量统计测算问题的研究进展,根据在统计过程中是否对货车运输装载和运输路径进行分离处理,分为“集计”和“非集计”测算,对各方法的优缺点进行了评述,并归纳了官方公路货物运输量统计测算方法发展的历史阶段。研究表明:计量经济和基于车型、车轴、路网结构的估算方法属于“集计”测算,是以某一特定类型的车辆群体为单位,通过建立模型将货车流量整体化,将运输载荷平均化后测算总量的方法。抽样调查法属于“非集计”测算,是以每一个车辆样本为单位,建立模型测算总量的方法。我国公路货物运输量统计测算经历了四个历史阶段,即计划经济体制下的全面调查、市场经济条件下的抽样调查、信息化背景下的抽样调查和有限数据下的融合调查,即将迎来多源异构大数据与统计数据的融合应用阶段,未来研究方向将聚焦在打破统计“数据孤岛”,开发大数据处理新工具,构建多重抽样框等方面。To systematically analyze and summarize the research status and development trend of statistical measurement techniques of the highway freight transport volume,according to whether the vehicle loading and vehicle path are separated in the calculation process,the calculation methods are divided into"aggregate method"and"non-aggregate method",the applicable characteristics of each method are reviewed,and the historical stages of the development of the statistical calculation method of official highway freight transportation are summarized.The research shows that the econometric and estimation methods based on vehicle types,axles,and road network structures belong to the"aggregate calculation".It is a method that takes a specific type of vehicle group as a unit,integrates truck traffic flow volume by establishing a model,averages the transportation load,and then calculates the total transportation volume.The sampling survey method belongs to"non-aggregate calculation",which takes each vehicle sample as a unit and builds a model to measure the total amount.The statistical calculation of highway freight volume in our country has gone through four historical stages,namely the calculation method of the comprehensive survey under the planned economy system,comprehensive surveys under the planned economy system,sample surveys under market economy conditions,sample surveys under the background of informatization,and integrated surveys under limited data.The upcoming stage is the integration and application of multi-source heterogeneous big data and statistical data.Future research directions will focus on breaking statistical"data islands",developing new big data processing tools,and constructing multiple sampling frames.

关 键 词：交通工程 公路运输 集计模型 抽样调查 波动系数 大数据 

分 类 号：U491.11[交通运输工程—交通运输规划与管理]