养老保险全国统筹:资金拨付模式选择影响地方政府征缴行为与财政负担吗?  

National Coordination of Pension Insurance:Does the Choice of Fund Appropriation Mode Affect Local Government Premium Collection Behavior and Fiscal Burden?

作　　者：曾益[1] 屈君桥 ZENG Yi;QU Jun-qiao(School of Public Administration,Zhongnan University of Economics and Law,Wuhan 430073,China)

机构地区：[1]中南财经政法大学公共管理学院,湖北武汉430073

出　　处：《现代财经（天津财经大学学报）》2024年第6期54-72,共19页Modern Finance and Economics：Journal of Tianjin University of Finance and Economics

基　　金：国家自然科学基金青年项目(72304283);中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金(2722024BY018)。

摘　　要：我国于2022年1月启动实施养老保险全国统筹政策,在基金统支环节,待遇资金拨付存在“逐级拨付”和“直接拨付”至县级专户两种模式,两者不同点在于中央政府拨付至县级专户的资金是否经由各省级和各市级专户,理论上对省市县三级政府的保费征缴行为与财政负担有不同程度影响。本文通过构建计量与精算模型得到如下结论:第一,如果仍实行省际余缺调剂的全国统筹模式,2023—2050年累计财政负担为734万亿元;第二,“逐级拨付”模式不会改变征缴率,但累计财政负担较余缺调剂模式略微降低;第三,受中央与地方政府间“委托—代理”关系影响,在“直接拨付”模式下,省级和市级政府产生消极征缴保费的道德风险,累计财政负担较余缺调剂模式和“逐级拨付”模式均有所增加;第四,引入激励相容机制或延退政策均会降低“逐级拨付”和“直接拨付”模式下的累计财政负担,对“逐级拨付”模式的影响程度更大。因此,在全国统筹进程中应首选“逐级拨付”模式,如果选择“直接拨付”模式,应激励地方政府征缴保费并适时引入参量改革。In January 2022,China launched the implementation of the national coordination policy for pension insurance.In the fund pooling stage,there are two modes of treatment fund appropriation:“gradual appropriation”and“direct appropriation”to county-level special accounts.The difference between the two is whether the funds appropriated by the central government to county-level special accounts pass through provincial and municipal special accounts,which theoretically has varying degrees of impact on the premium collection behavior and fiscal burden of the provincial,municipal,and county-level governments.This article draws the following conclusions through the construction of econometric and actuarial models:Firstly,if the national coordination model of inter provincial surplus and deficit adjustment is still implemented,the cumulative fiscal burden from 2023 to 2050 will be 734 trillion yuan.Secondly,the“gradual appropriation”mode will not change the collection rate,but the cumulative fiscal burden will be slightly reduced compared to the surplus and shortage adjustment mode.Thirdly,influenced by the“principal-agent”relationship between central and local governments,under the“direct appropriation”mode,provincial-level and municipal governments face moral hazard of passive premium collection,resulting in a decrease in collection rates and an increase in cumulative fiscal burden compared to the surplus and deficiency adjustment modes and the“gradual appropriation”mode.Finally,introducing incentive compatibility mechanisms or deferral policies will reduce the cumulative fiscal burden under the“gradual appropriation”and“direct appropriation”modes,and have a greater impact on the“gradual appropriation”mode.In summary,the“gradual appropriation”mode should be preferred in the national overall planning process.If the“direct appropriation”mode is chosen,local governments should be incentivized to collect premiums and introduce parameter reforms in a timely manner.

关 键 词：养老保险 全国统筹 待遇资金拨付 委托—代理 财政负担 

分 类 号：F840.67[经济管理—保险]