全球极端降水对不同外强迫的敏感性响应:基于PDRMIP模拟试验  

Sensitivity of global extreme precipitation to different climate forcings:A PDRMIP multimodel study

作　　者：武洁 石正国[1,3] 解小宁 杨永恒[2,4] 刘方圆 Jie Wu;Zhengguo Shi;Xiaoning Xie;Yongheng Yang;Fangyuan Liu(State Key Laboratory of Loess and Quaternary Geology,Institute of Earth Environment,Chinese Academy of Sciences,Xi’an 710061,China;University of Chinese Academy of Sciences,Beijing 100049,China;Institute of Global Environmental Change,Xi’an Jiaotong University,Xi’an 710049,China;Northwest Institute of Eco-Environment and Resources,Chinese Academy of Sciences,Lanzhou 730000,China)

机构地区：[1]中国科学院地球环境研究所,黄土与第四纪地质国家重点实验室,西安710061 [2]中国科学院大学,北京100049 [3]西安交通大学全球环境变化研究院,西安710049 [4]中国科学院西北生态环境资源研究院,兰州730000

出　　处：《科学通报》2024年第15期2093-2106,共14页Chinese Science Bulletin

基　　金：国家自然科学基金创新研究群体项目(42221003);中国科学院战略性先导科技专项(XDB40030000);中国科学院青年创新促进会优秀会员(Y2022101);陕西省自然科学基础研究计划(2022JC-17);黄土与第四纪地质国家重点实验室开放基金课题(SKLLQG2329)资助。

摘　　要：全球增暖背景下极端降水变化受到了温室气体、太阳辐射、气溶胶等自然与人为强迫因素的共同影响.本文基于“降水驱动与响应模式间比较计划”(A Precipitation Driver and Response Model Intercomparison Project,PDRMIP)提供的9个全球气候模式模拟的针对5种不同因子(加倍二氧化碳、增加2%的太阳辐射、10倍黑碳、5倍硫酸盐、3倍甲烷)高强迫情景下的理想试验,利用气候变化检测和指数专家组(Expert Team on Climate Change Detection and Indices,ETCCDI)定义的4个降水指数,详细分析了不同外部强迫因子作用下全球极端降水的响应.结果表明,相比于平均降水,在5种强迫因子作用下极端降水指数均表现出更大的变化.与加倍二氧化碳相比,增加2%的太阳辐射、5倍硫酸盐气溶胶和3倍甲烷强迫下全球极端降水对温度变化的响应更加强烈,而10倍黑碳气溶胶强迫下的降水变化则表现出较强的模式间差异.在加倍二氧化碳、增加2%的太阳辐射和3倍甲烷强迫下,极端降水的变化表现相似的纬向分布特征,最强的降水响应出现在赤道地区;10倍黑碳、5倍硫酸盐气溶胶强迫下则表现出明显的南北半球差异.水汽收支诊断结果揭示了在高强迫情景下,二氧化碳、太阳辐射和甲烷强迫下热带地区更强烈的降水变化主要与热力作用有关,而动力作用可能是导致黑碳、硫酸盐气溶胶强迫下降水变化的主要原因.Under the current global warming condition,changes in global extreme precipitation have been influenced by both natural and anthropogenic climate forcings—e.g.,greenhouse gases,solar irradiation,and aerosols.In recent years,global precipitation has experienced significant changes,with more intense and frequent extreme rainfall events often leading to serious natural hazards,which in turn result in huge economic losses as well as adverse impacts on human safety and social development.Compared to mean precipitation,extreme precipitation has higher sensitivity to the same surface temperature changes and shows a range of responses that depend largely on differences in climate forcing.Several studies have revealed more robust precipitation changes in response to aerosols and solar irradiation than greenhouse gases,but how individual climate forcings affect the changes in extreme precipitation remains poorly understood.Thus,understanding how extreme precipitation responds to the perturbations of each individual forcing will enhance our understanding of the physical mechanisms behind the variations in extreme precipitation.In this study,we present multi-model results under the framework of the Precipitation Driver and Response Model Intercomparison Project(PDRMIP),which aims to investigate the responses of extreme precipitation to perturbed climate forcings via the following scenarios,a doubling of the CO2 concentration(CO2×2);a 2%increase in solar insolation(SOL+2%);a 10-fold increase in black carbon concentrations or emissions(BC×10);a 5-fold increase in SO4 concentrations or emissions(SO4×5);and a tripling of CH4 concentrations(CH4×3).The sensitivity and spatial patterns of extreme precipitation under these different external forcings were calculated.Using the moisture budget equation,we further diagnosed the impacts of moisture humidity and atmospheric circulation on precipitation and quantified the relative contributions of dynamics and thermodynamics to significant latitudinal bands of precipitation under in

关 键 词：极端降水 敏感性 PDRMIP 气候强迫 

分 类 号：P426.6[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]