1998—2021年长江上游地区环境压力的时空格局特征  

Spatio-temporal pattern of environmental pressure in the upper reaches of the Yangtze River from 1998 to 2021

作　　者：黄磊 HUANG Lei(College of Economics and Management,Southwest University,Chongqing 400715,China;China Institute of Development Strategy and Planning,Wuhan University,Wuhan 430072,China)

机构地区：[1]西南大学经济管理学院,重庆400715 [2]武汉大学中国发展战略与规划研究院,武汉430072

出　　处：《地理学报》2024年第5期1192-1210,共19页Acta Geographica Sinica

基　　金：国家社会科学基金项目(20CJL021)。

摘　　要：长江上游地区承载着国家重要生态服务功能,也是国家核心增长极,但经济快速发展中的资源消耗给该地区生态系统稳定带来了巨大压力。本文基于1998—2021年长江上游地区47个研究单元面板数据,综合采用Dagum基尼系数、核密度估计、马尔科夫链、空间收敛模型等方法多维度剖析长江上游地区环境压力时空格局。研究发现,1998—2021年长江上游地区整体环境压力倒“V”型微升态势,前期增长的环境代价明显,但后期环境风险得到有效控制;环境压力呈“东高西低”与“高缩低扩”格局,偏东的三大城市化地区特别是成渝地区压力突出,但后期长江大保护政策使高环境压力范围大幅收缩;环境压力总体差异呈阶段性小幅波动态势,地区内差异、地区间净差异与超变密度趋于均衡,云南和贵州稳定存在少数高压力城市;环境压力演化由“多极分化”向“低压集中”趋势转变,前期环境压力梯度分异明显,而后期则普遍向低压力水平聚集;环境压力相对态势具有较强的稳定性,但随时间推移逐渐衰减,并存在环境压力变迁的空间渗透效应;环境压力收敛趋势强劲,空间近邻效应对环境压力趋同有加速作用,后期环境政策趋紧使收敛进程疾速缩短。本文可为筑牢长江上游生态安全屏障提供决策支持。As a crucial ecological service provider and a key regional growth pole,the upper reaches of the Yangtze River faces significant environmental pressure due to enormous resource consumption during rapid economic development,posing a threat to the stability of its ecosystem.Based on the panel data from 47 prefecture-level and above cities in the upper reaches of the Yangtze River from 1998 to 2021,this paper comprehensively used Dagum Gini Coefficient,kernel density estimation,Markov Chain,spatial convergence model and other methods to deeply analyze the spatiotemporal pattern of environmental pressure.The results are as follows:(1)During the sample period,the overall pressure showed a slight upward trend in an inverted"V"-shaped pattern.The environmental cost of economic growth was high in the early stages,but the environmental risk was effectively controlled in the later stages.(2)The pressure demonstrated a pattern of"high in the east and low in the west"and"high-pressure areas contracted and low-pressure areas expanded".The three urbanized areas in the east,especially Chengdu-Chongqing region,were the pressure centers.However,due to the implementation of the environmental protection policies in the Yangtze River Basin,the scope of high-pressure cities significantly decreased.(3)The overall difference of the pressure exhibited a gently periodic fluctuating trend,with regional difference,net inter-regional difference,and hypervariable density tending towards a state of equilibrium.There were a few stable high-pressure cities in Yunnan-Guizhou region.(4)The evolution of the pressure shifted from a"multi-polar differentiation"trend to a"low-pressure concentration"trend.Initially,there were significant gradients in environmental pressure among cities,but in the later stages,most cities tended to converge towards lower pressure levels.(5)The relative situation of the pressure showed strong stability,but gradually decayed over time,and there existed spatial infiltration effect on the pressure changes.(6)The convergenc

关 键 词：流域经济 绿色发展 生态保护 环境压力 时空特征 长江上游地区 

分 类 号：X321[环境科学与工程—环境工程]