乡村聚落与耕地共生理论模型及案例区情景模拟  

Theoretical model of symbiosis between rural settlements and cultivated land and scenarios simulation in case area

作　　者：马利邦[1,2,3] 张文博 王祥 陈贤斐 白静 MA Libang;ZHANG Wenbo;WANG Xiang;CHEN Xianfei;BAI Jing(College of Geography and Environmental Science,Northwest Normal University,Lanzhou 730070,China;Key Laboratory of Resource Environment and Sustainable Development of Oasis,Lanzhou 730070,China;Institute of Urban and Rural Development and Collaborative Governance of Northwest,Northwest Normal University,Lanzhou 730070,China)

机构地区：[1]西北师范大学地理与环境科学学院,兰州730070 [2]甘肃省绿洲资源环境与可持续发展重点实验室,兰州730070 [3]西北师范大学西北城乡发展与协同治理研究院,兰州730070

出　　处：《地理学报》2024年第5期1265-1285,共21页Acta Geographica Sinica

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(42271222,42261033)。

摘　　要：乡村聚落与耕地作为描述乡村发展的重要子系统,两者互利共生对于乡村可持续发展至关重要。在甘肃省环境异质性背景下,以1384个乡(镇)为研究单元,引入共生理论构建乡村聚落与耕地共生框架,构建乡村聚落、耕地、共生环境评价指标体系,借助Lotka-Volterra模型识别其共生模式。新一轮国土空间规划背景下,借助SD-FLUS耦合模型对比分析2035年惯性发展情景(BD)和规划发展情景(PD)下共生模式演变趋势。研究发现:(1) 2000—2020年甘肃省乡村聚落、耕地发展水平呈先增后减趋势,共生环境容量呈持续下降趋势;五大农业区划3个指标差异显著,河西灌溉农业区(IA)具有明显发展优势。(2) 2000—2020年甘肃省乡村聚落与耕地共生模式整体呈互利共生向互害共生转变,互利共生占比由59.80%下降至38.97%;区域间主导模式差异显著,高寒牧区(AP)、陇南山地农业区(MA)、IA以互利共生为主,陇中旱作农业区(DA)、陇东雨养农业区(RA)分别以聚落偏害、耕地偏利为主;2000—2020年各区域主导模式均趋于多元化且呈现出由互利共生向互害共生转移的发展共性。(3)不同情景下共生模式差异显著,BD情景下五大区域延续历史粗放发展模式,互利共生模式占比均持续减少,而PD情景下因共生单元、环境容量水平的提升,共生模式向互利共生进化。As an important subsystem describing rural development,the mutually beneficial symbiosis of rural settlements and cultivated land is crucial for sustainable rural development.Under the heterogeneous physical environment of Gansu province,1384 townships were taken as the research units,and the symbiosis theory was introduced to construct a framework for the symbiosis between rural settlements and cultivated land.We construct a system of indicators for evaluating rural settlements,cultivated land,symbiosis environments,and identify their symbiosis patterns with the help of the Lotka-Volterra model.In the context of the new round of territorial spatial planning,the SD-FLUS coupled model is used to compare and analyze the evolutionary trends of symbiosis patterns under the baseline development scenario(BD)and the planning development scenario(PD)in 2035.The study found that:(1)The development level of rural settlements and cultivated land in Gansu shows a trend of first increasing and then decreasing,and the symbiosis environmental capacity shows a continuous decreasing trend.Three indicators of the five agricultural zones have significant differences.The irrigated agriculture area of the Hexi Region(IA)has an obvious advantage in the regional development.(2)The overall pattern of symbiosis between rural settlements and cultivated land in the province showed a shift from mutually beneficial symbiosis to mutually detrimental symbiosis,with the proportion of mutually beneficial symbiosis decreasing from 59.80%to 38.97%.There were significant differences in dominant patterns between regions.Alpine pastoral area(AP),mountainous agricultural area(MA),and IA are dominated by mutually beneficial symbiosis,while dry agricultural area(DA)and rain-fed agricultural area(RA)are dominated by rural settlements-bias and cultivated land-bias.During the 21-year period,the dominant pattrens of each region tended to be diversified and showed a commonality in the transformation from mutually beneficial symbiosis to mutually detrimental

关 键 词：乡村聚落 耕地 共生模式 多维情景模拟 甘肃省 

分 类 号：F323.211[经济管理—产业经济]