中国家庭能源消费的时空特征、影响因素与趋势预测  

Spatiotemporal characteristics,influencing factors,and trend prediction of household energy consumption in China

作　　者：庄汝龙 杨洁 宓科娜 张朝阳 职梦露 ZHUANG Rulong;YANG Jie;MI Kena;ZHANG Chaoyang;ZHI Menglu(Business School,Ningbo University,Ningbo 315211,Zhejiang,China;School of International Trade&Economics,Ningbo University of Finance&Economics,Ningbo 315175,Zhejiang,China)

机构地区：[1]宁波大学商学院,浙江宁波315211 [2]宁波财经学院国际经济贸易学院,浙江宁波315175

出　　处：《地理科学进展》2024年第5期870-887,共18页Progress in Geography

基　　金：国家社会科学基金项目(21CJY073)。

摘　　要：随着居民生活水平的持续提高与收入的不断增加,家庭能源消费日益成为中国能源消费的重要增长点,把握家庭能源消费时空特征,判别家庭能源消费影响因素与发展趋势,有助于加快构建现代能源体系、推进能源低碳转型以及“双碳”目标的实现。基于此,论文将家庭能源消费作为研究对象,系统探讨其时空演变特征。进一步借助空间计量模型、灰色预测、情景分析等方法,对家庭能源消费的影响因素及其发展趋势进行系统研究。研究发现:①从时空特征来看,1995—2021年家庭能源消费呈现上升趋势。同时,城乡家庭能源消费的差距逐渐拉大,但其人均家庭能源消费呈现趋同态势。②从家庭能源消费的占比与结构来看,家庭能源消费占能源消费总量的1/10左右,且家庭能源消费结构呈现出多样化与清洁化发展趋势。③从影响因素来看,能源强度、人口规模、家庭规模、教育水平、经济发展、城镇化率与汽车拥有量是家庭能源消费的重要影响因素,但在影响程度上存在差异。④从未来趋势来看,至2040年中国家庭能源消费量将持续增长,且在稳健发展情景下增速较慢,表明政府政策的落实与居民绿色消费理念的普及等对控制家庭能源消费增长表现出积极效果。因此,研究认为应调整能源消费结构,提高天然气消费比重;优化乡村家庭能源消费结构;进一步完善能源发展政策与转变居民消费观念,以控制家庭能源消费过快增长。With the continuous improvement of people's living standards and increasing income,household energy consumption has become an important growth point of energy consumption in China.Grasping the spatiotemporal characteristics of household energy consumption and identifying the influencing factors and development trends of household energy consumption will help to accelerate the construction of a modern energy system,promote low-carbon energy transformation,and achieve the dual carbon goals.This study took household energy consumption as the research object and systematically explored its spatiotemporal evolution characteristics in China.Furthermore,it used the spatial econometric models,grey prediction,and scenario analysis to examine the influencing factors and development trends of household energy consumption.The study found that:1)From the perspective of spatiotemporal characteristics,household energy consumption showed an upward trend from 1995 to 2021.Meanwhile,the gap in energy consumption between urban and rural households was gradually widening,but their per capita household energy consumption showed a trend of convergence.2)From the perspective of proportion and structure,household energy consumption accounts for about one tenth of the total energy consumption,and the household energy consumption structure showed a trend of diversification and clean development.3)From the perspective of influencing factors,energy intensity,population size,household size,education level,economic development,urbanization rate,and car ownership were important influencing factors for household energy consumption,but the degree of impact varied.4)From the perspective of future trends,China's household energy consumption will continue to grow by 2040,and under the scenario of steady development,the growth rate is slower,indicating that the implementation of government policies and the popularization of green consumption concept among residents have a positive effect on controlling the growth of household energy consumption.Base

关 键 词：家庭能源消费 时空特征 影响因素 趋势预测 中国 

分 类 号：F426.2[经济管理—产业经济]