基于改进元胞自动机的城市区域疏散时序规划模型研究  

Research on time series planning model of urban regional evacuation based on improved cellular automata

作　　者：熊斯捷 吕伟[1] 汪京辉 邓方蔚 杨晓婷[1] XIONG Sijie;LYU Wei;WANG Jinghui;DENG Fangwei;YANG Xiaoting(School of Safety Science and Emergency Management,Wuhan University of Technology,Wuhan Hubei 430070,China)

机构地区：[1]武汉理工大学安全科学与应急管理学院,湖北武汉430070

出　　处：《中国安全生产科学技术》2024年第6期32-39,共8页Journal of Safety Science and Technology

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(52072286)。

摘　　要：为解决灾前城市大规模人群有效疏散的难题,考虑实际路网、人口等因素对疏散的影响对传统元胞自动机疏散模型进行改进,构建以各疏散组整体疏散时间最短且不发生拥堵为目标的城市区域疏散时序规划模型,并选取武汉市某滨江地区进行疏散仿真模拟以验证突出模型的有效性与适用性。研究结果表明:提出的模型可以显著减少各疏散组的整体疏散时间和道路拥堵概率,同时得到具体的分阶段疏散方案。研究结果可为制定城市大灾巨灾的应对预案、构建灾害情景等工作提供参考。In order to solve the problem of effective evacuation of large-scale urban crowds before the disaster,the traditional cellular automata evacuation model was improved by considering the influence of actual road network,population and other factors on evacuation.A time series planning model of urban regional evacuation was constructed with the goal of minimizing the overall evacuation time of each evacuation group and avoiding congestion,and a certain riverside area in Wuhan was selected for evacuation simulation to verify the effectiveness and applicability of the prominent model.The results show that the proposed model can significantly reduce the overall evacuation time and road congestion probability of each evacuation group,and obtain specific staged evacuation schemes at the same time.The research results can provide reference for the development of urban disaster response plans and the construction of disaster scenarios.

关 键 词：城市公共安全 分阶段疏散 元胞自动机 规划模型 

分 类 号：X915.5[环境科学与工程—安全科学] X913.4