化工过程系统韧性研究进展与展望  

Research progress and prospects on the resilience of chemical process systems

作　　者：王海顺 魏利军[2,4] 多英全 苏明清[2,4] 杨国梁 曾涛 WANG Haishun;WEI Lijun;DUO Yingquan;SU Mingqing;YANG Guoliang;ZENG Tao(Key Laboratory of Environmental Change and Natural Disaster of Ministry of Education,Beijing Normal University,Beijing 100875,China;China Academy of Safety Science and Technology,Beijing 100012,China;School of Emergency Management and Safety Engineering,China University of Mining and Technology(Beijing),Beijing 100083,China;Key Laboratory of Major Hazard and Chemical Industry Park System Safety,Ministry of Emergency Management,Beijing 100012,China)

机构地区：[1]北京师范大学环境演变与自然灾害教育部重点实验室,北京100875 [2]中国安全生产科学研究院,北京100012 [3]中国矿业大学(北京)应急管理与安全工程学院,北京100083 [4]重大危险源与化工园区系统安全应急管理部重点实验室,北京100012

出　　处：《中国安全生产科学技术》2024年第6期40-49,共10页Journal of Safety Science and Technology

基　　金：国家重点研发计划项目(2021YFC3001201);北京师范大学环境演变与自然灾害教育部重点实验室开放课题项目(2022-KF-11)。

摘　　要：为推动对化工过程系统韧性的研究,通过文献综述的方法,辨析系统韧性概念,解析化工过程系统韧性概念框架,从定性与定量2方面分析化工过程系统韧性评估研究的进展,探讨目前的研究挑战并展望未来研究方向。研究结果表明:化工过程系统韧性表示系统应对不利事件的预测、吸收、适应、恢复和学习能力;扰动下基于系统性能的概率方法是当前化工过程系统韧性定量评估的热点;韧性定量研究的主要挑战为扰动辨识与韧性建模等;未来研究应更多关注耦合扰动下韧性分析、综合韧性建模、动态韧性评估与韧性设计优化等方向。研究结果可为化工过程系统韧性的研究与应用提供参考。To promote the research on chemical process system resilience(CPSR),through the method of literature review,the concept of system resilience was investigated,and the conceptual framework of CPSR was analyzed.The progress of CPSR assessment research was reviewed from both qualitative and quantitative aspects,then the current challenges and future directions of CPSR research were explored.The results show that CPSR represents the system’s ability to anticipate,absorb,adapt,recover,and learn in response to adverse events.The system performance-based probabilistic approaches under disturbance are the current hotspot for quantitative assessment of CPSR.The key challenges of quantitative resilience research are the disturbance identification,resilience modeling,etc.The directions of resilience analysis under coupled disturbance,comprehensive resilience modeling,dynamic resilience assessment,and design and optimization of resilience should be paid more attention in future research.The research results can provide some reference for the research and application of CPSR.

关 键 词：化工过程系统 韧性概念框架 韧性评估方法 定量评估 过程安全 

分 类 号：X937[环境科学与工程—安全科学]