碳保险、低碳财税政策与农业碳减排——基于碳排放权交易下的演化博弈分析  

Carbon Insurance,Low-carbon Fiscal and Tax Policies,and Agricultural Carbon Reduction:An Evolutionary Game Analysis Based on Carbon Emission Trading

作　　者：贺晔平 廖朴[2] HE Ye-ping;LIAO Pu(School of Big Data Application and Economics,Guizhou University of Finance and Economics,Guiyang 550025;China Institute for Actuarial Science,Central University of Finance and Economics,Beijing 100081)

机构地区：[1]贵州财经大学大数据应用与经济学院,贵阳550025 [2]中央财经大学中国精算研究院,北京100081

出　　处：《软科学》2024年第5期107-117,共11页Soft Science

基　　金：贵州省哲学社会科学规划项目(20GZYB01)。

摘　　要：通过构建风险冲击下碳保险作用农业碳减排的社会动力学模型,讨论碳保险与低碳财税政策的农业碳减排效应,以及碳保险和财税政策工具的优化配置问题。结果发现:在无保费补贴的情况下,碳保险并不能加速低碳农业生产技术扩散,但当保费补贴比例足够高时,“碳保险+保费补贴”方式能对农业碳减排发挥积极的促进作用;财政补贴比例和碳税税率增加,都会加快低碳农业生产技术扩散,并且财政补贴比例增加会提高财政补贴效率,保费补贴效率也明显大于碳减排直接补贴效率;在财政约束下,对中小型农业生产者采用“碳保险+保费补贴”的减排方式更具有优势,而对大型农业生产者应协调配合使用碳减排直接补贴方式和“碳保险+保费补贴”方式。In this paper,by constructing a social dynamic model of agricultural carbon emission reduction caused by carbon insurance under risk impact,the agricultural carbon emission reduction effects of carbon insurance and low-carbon fiscal and tax policies were discussed,as well as the optimal allocation of carbon insurance and fiscal and tax policy tools.The re-sults showed that carbon insurance could not accelerate the diffusion of low-carbon agricultural production technology with-out premium subsidies,but when the proportion of premium subsidies was high enough,the way"carbon insurance+pre-mium subsidies"could play a positive role in promoting agricultural carbon emission reduction.The increase in the propor-tion of fiscal subsidies and carbon tax rate will accelerate the diffusion of low-carbon agricultural production technology,and the increase in the proportion of fiscal subsidies will improve the efficiency of fiscal subsidies,and the efficiency of pre-mium subsidies is significantly greater than that of direct carbon emission reduction subsidies.Under financial constraints,it is more advantageous for small and medium-sized agricultural producers to adopt the emission reduction method of"carbon insurance+premium subsidy",while for large agricultural producers,direct subsidies and"carbon insurance+premium subsidy"should be coordinated and used.

关 键 词：碳保险 财税政策 低碳农业 演化博弈 

分 类 号：F842.66[经济管理—保险] F812.42[环境科学与工程—环境工程] X322