谁在养活中国——基于农户种粮行为决定机理的分析  

Who Is Feeding China:Analysis on the Decision Mechanism of Rural Households'Grain Planting Behaviors

作　　者：邹宝玲 洪炜杰 耿鹏鹏 ZOU Baoling;HONG Weijie;CENC Pengpeng

机构地区：[1]西南大学经济管理学院,重庆400715 [2]华南农业大学经济管理学院,广州510642 [3]安徽农业大学经济管理学院,合肥230036

出　　处：《农业技术经济》2024年第5期4-24,共21页Journal of Agrotechnical Economics

基　　金：国家自然科学基金重点项目“乡村振兴战略实施中政府与市场的关系及其协调研究”(编号:71933004);国家自然科学基金青年项目“丘陵山区耕地利用转型驱动机制与优化调控研究——以西南地区为例”(编号:42301249)。

摘　　要：中国的粮食安全问题一直备受社会关注,从而衍生出“谁在养活中国”这一命题。本文从要素配置和农业分工两个逻辑出发,揭示小农户种粮的内在机理,阐明农户在中国粮食供给中的决定性作用。进一步考虑到农户异质性与农户分化,本文将农户分为生存型、生产型、生活型与功能型农户。利用中国家庭金融调查(CHFS)2015年农户数据进行实证分析,并使用倾向得分匹配法构建反事实分析框架进行稳健性检验,结果表明:(1)中国农业仍以小规模农户经营为主,生产型农户在粮食供给中发挥了核心作用;(2)整体而言,劳动力约束、务农机会成本会负向影响农户粮食种植,稳定土地产权、扩大地块规模、推进农业生产型服务与强化农业政策补贴,则能显著诱导农户的种粮行为;(3)与其他资源禀赋相似的农户相比,生产型农户由于受到劳动力约束和机会成本的影响较小,从而具有粮食供给的比较优势。因此,促进要素市场与服务市场的有效发育及其匹配,是动员小农户种粮积极性并保障国家粮食安全的重要策略。China's food security has been the concern of the society,which forms the proposition of"who is feeding China".This paper reveals the internal mechanism of small-scale rural households'grain production from two logics:factor allocation and agricultural labor division,to clarify the decisive role of rural households in China's food supply.Meanwhile,considering rural households'heterogeneity and differentiation,this paper divides rural households into subsistence,productive,living and functional rural households.Based on the empirical analysis of household data from the China Household Finance Survey(CHFS)in 2015,this paper constructs a counterfactual analysis framework using the propensity score matching method for robustness test.Findings show that:(1)China's agriculture is still dominated by small-scale rural households,and productive rural households play a central role in the food supply;(2)Overall,labor constraints and agricultural opportunity costs will negatively affect rural households'grain planting,stabilizing land property rights,expanding land size,promoting agricultural production services,and strengthening agricultural policy subsidies can significantly induce rural households'grain planting behaviors;(3)Compared with other rural households with similar resource endowments,productive rural households have a comparative advantage in food supply because they are less affected by labor constraints and opportunity costs.This paper emphasizes that promoting the effective development and matching of factor market and service market is an important strategy to mobilize the enthusiasm of small-scale rural households and ensure national food security.

关 键 词：粮食种植 粮食商品率 农户分类 要素配置 农业分工 

分 类 号：F326.11[经济管理—产业经济]