突发疫情及网络舆情对猪肉价格波动影响的异质性研究:来自双疫情冲击的证据  

The Heterogeneous Impacts of Epidemic Incidents and Network Public Opinion on Pork Price Fluctuations:Evidence from ASF and COVID-19

作　　者：段琮琮 刘灵芝[1] 易岚 DUAN Congcong;LIU Lingzhi;YI Lan

机构地区：[1]华中农业大学经济管理学院,武汉430070 [2]南昌大学公共政策与管理学院,南昌330031

出　　处：《农业技术经济》2024年第5期110-125,共16页Journal of Agrotechnical Economics

基　　金：财政部和农业农村部国家现代农业产业技术体系(编号:CARS-42-28)。

摘　　要：本文利用网络爬虫技术抓取并构建舆情指数,并同时利用疫情发生数作为疫情突发事件的测量指标。在此基础上,运用平滑转换回归(Stregress)模型探究双疫情及其网络舆情对生猪产业链价格的短期影响及门槛异质性。然后进一步利用SV-TVP-SVAR模型分别探究双疫情、双舆情对猪肉价格的长期动态影响,以此重点分析其异质性。结果表明,(1)双疫情网络舆情对生猪产业链价格的冲击效应存在门槛特征。(2)双疫情网络舆情对猪肉价格存在着正负向相结合的综合影响,且这种影响具有明显的时变特征及跨期差异。(3)相较于疫情事件,猪肉价格受到网络舆情的冲击较小,但波动幅度更大。(4)非洲猪瘟疫情对猪肉价格的冲击大于新冠肺炎疫情,舆情效应体现相同规律。This study constructs an index of public opinion based on the data collected by Website Python while using the number of confirmed cases to measure epidemic incidents.On this basis,the Smooth Transition Regression(Stregress)model is applied to explore the short-term effects and threshold heterogeneity of the two kinds of epidemics and their network public opinion on the price transmission of the hog industry chain.Then,the SV-TVP-SVAR model is further applied to explore the long-term dynamic effects of the two kinds of epidemics and their network public opinion index on pork prices separately,as a way to focus on their heterogeneity.The results show that the impact effect of network public opinion on the price transmission of the hog industry chain is characterized by a threshold effect.The network public opinion of both epidemics has a mixed effect on pork prices with time-varying characteristics and intertemporal differences.Pork prices are less strongly impacted by network public opinion compared to epidemic events,but with greater volatility.The African swine fever epidemic has a greater impact on pork prices than the COVID-19 epidemic,and the impact of network public opinion is similar.

关 键 词：突发疫情 网络舆情 生猪市场 猪肉价格波动 异质性 

分 类 号：F323.7[经济管理—产业经济]