Growth and Interactions of Multi-Source Perturbations in Convection-Allowing Ensemble Forecasts  

作　　者：张璐 闵锦忠 庄潇然 王世璋 魏莉青 ZHANG Lu;MIN Jin-zhong;ZHUANG Xiao-ran;WANG Shi-zhang;WEI Li-qing(Key Laboratory of Meteorological Disaster of Ministry of Education/Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters,Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology,Nanjing 210044 China;Jiangsu Meteorological Observatory,Jiangsu Meteorological Service,Nanjing 210008 China;Nanjing Joint Institute for Atmospheric Sciences,Nanjing 210000 China)

机构地区：[1]Key Laboratory of Meteorological Disaster of Ministry of Education/Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters,Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology,Nanjing 210044 China [2]Jiangsu Meteorological Observatory,Jiangsu Meteorological Service,Nanjing 210008 China [3]Nanjing Joint Institute for Atmospheric Sciences,Nanjing 210000 China

出　　处：《Journal of Tropical Meteorology》2024年第2期118-131,共14页热带气象学报（英文版）

基　　金：Key Project of the National Natural Science Foundation of China (42330611);National Natural Science Foundation of China (42105008)。

摘　　要：This study investigated the growth of forecast errors stemming from initial conditions(ICs),lateral boundary conditions(LBCs),and model(MO)perturbations,as well as their interactions,by conducting seven 36 h convectionallowing ensemble forecast(CAEF)experiments.Two cases,one with strong-forcing(SF)and the other with weak-forcing(WF),occurred over the Yangtze-Huai River basin(YHRB)in East China,were selected to examine the sources of uncertainties associated with perturbation growth under varying forcing backgrounds and the influence of these backgrounds on growth.The perturbations exhibited distinct characteristics in terms of temporal evolution,spatial propagation,and vertical distribution under different forcing backgrounds,indicating a dependence between perturbation growth and forcing background.A comparison of the perturbation growth in different precipitation areas revealed that IC and LBC perturbations were significantly influenced by the location of precipitation in the SF case,while MO perturbations were more responsive to convection triggering and dominated in the WF case.The vertical distribution of perturbations showed that the sources of uncertainties and the performance of perturbations varied between SF and WF cases,with LBC perturbations displaying notable case dependence.Furthermore,the interactions between perturbations were considered by exploring the added values of different source perturbations.For the SF case,the added values of IC,LBC,and MO perturbations were reflected in different forecast periods and different source uncertainties,suggesting that the combination of multi-source perturbations can yield positive interactions.In the WF case,MO perturbations provided a more accurate estimation of uncertainties downstream of the Dabie Mountain and need to be prioritized in the research on perturbation development.

关 键 词：convection-allowing ensemble forecast forcing background perturbation growth INTERACTIONS added value 

分 类 号：P40[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]