重大公共卫生事件冲击下财政金融风险“反馈循环”研究  

The"Feedback Loop"Between Fiscal Risk and Financial Risk under the Impact of Public Health Emergencies

作　　者：马恩涛 姜超 代旭 任海平 Ma Entao;Jiang Chao;Dai Xu;Ren Haiping

机构地区：[1]山东财经大学财政税务学院

出　　处：《财政研究》2024年第3期51-74,共24页Public Finance Research

基　　金：国家社会科学基金一般项目“我国财政风险和金融风险‘反馈循环’及其协同治理研究”(21BJY003)。

摘　　要：近年来,财政风险和金融风险之间的“反馈循环”愈发明显。本文以重大突发性公共卫生事件冲击为切入点,通过构建四部门DSGE模型,研究了财政金融风险之间的相互传导和积聚及其对经济产生的影响。模型中,我们基于政府对银行损失的救助、银行对救助资金的偿还以及银行对政府债券的持有等主体行为构建财政金融风险“反馈循环”过程并进行了参数模拟,结果表明:(1)财政金融风险间的“反馈循环”是存在的,它加剧了政府债务风险和金融脆弱性;(2)政府与银行间的密切联系是风险循环累积的主要原因,银行的弱能动性使得其在“反馈循环”的破解中处于被动地位,故主要依靠政府来解决;(3)调整政府债券期限、将源于银行的政府隐性债务纳入中期预算或者设立资本保护缓冲区等可以有效提升政府与银行抗风险能力。In recent years,the interaction or"feedback loop"between fiscal and financial risks has become increasingly apparent.Based on the impact of the public health emergencies,this paper studies the mutual transmission and accumulation between fiscal risk and financial risk and its impact on the economy by constructing a four-sector DSGE model.In the model,we introduce the government's rescue of bank losses,the bank's repayment of rescue funds and the structure of government bonds held by banks.We simulate the cyclic accumulation of risks by setting the repayment parameters of rescue funds by banks,and compare fiscal risks with financial risks using rational expectations.The results show that:(1)There exists a"feedback loop"structure between fiscal risks and financial risks.It has led to the transmission and accumulation of risks between the two sectors,exacerbating government debt problems and financial fragility.(2)The close connection between government departments and banking departments is the main reason for the accumulation of risk cycles,and the weak initiative of banks leads to their passive position in risk resolution,mainly relying on the government to solve it.(3)Policies such as adjusting the term of government bonds,incorporating implicit bank debt into the medium-term budget,or establishing a capital protection buffer zone can significantly improve the risk resistance capabilities of the government and banks.

关 键 词：重大公共卫生事件 财政风险 金融风险 反馈循环 

分 类 号：F812[经济管理—财政学]