贸易开放与财政政策波动性的生产率效应  

Trade Openness and the Productivity Effects of Fiscal Policy Volatility

作　　者：王立勇[1] 杜文会 徐晓莉 Wang Liyong;Du Wenhui;Xu Xiaoli

机构地区：[1]中央财经大学国际经济与贸易学院 [2]中央财经大学统计与数学学院 [3]北京交通大学经济管理学院

出　　处：《财政研究》2024年第3期75-93,共19页Public Finance Research

基　　金：国家自然科学基金“非常规财政政策的作用机理、效应评估、政策设计与模拟”(72273161);国家社会科学基金“基于行为和预期管理的财政政策研究”(23VRC044)。

摘　　要：近年来全球贸易形势复杂多变,贸易环境的变化会对财政政策特征与效应产生重要影响。本文采用固定效应面板数据模型和部分线性函数系数面板数据模型,基于2001—2019年48个国家的面板数据研究了贸易开放对财政政策波动性的生产率效应的影响及内在的作用机制。研究发现:财政政策波动性会对全要素生产率产生负面影响,该影响效应依赖于贸易开放水平,并会随着贸易开放水平的提高不断减小,当贸易开放达到一定程度时该影响效应变得不再显著。机制分析表明,随着贸易开放水平的提高,财政政策波动性对政府债务规模的扩大作用逐渐减小,最终贸易开放能够通过削弱财政政策波动性对政府债务规模的扩大作用,进而降低财政政策波动性对全要素生产率的负面影响。In recent years,the global trade situation has been complex and ever-changing,and changes in the trade environment will have a significant impact on the characteristics and effects of fiscal policies.The paper employs both a fixed effect panel data model and a partial linear function coefficient panel data model to investigate the impact of trade openness on the productivity effects of fiscal policy volatility and its underlying mechanisms,utilizing panel data spanning from 2001 to 2019 across 48 countries.The research reveals that fiscal policy volatility exerts a negative influence on total factor productivity,with the magnitude of this effect contingent upon the level of trade openness.Moreover,as trade openness increases,the magnitude of this effect diminishes progressively,eventually becoming statistically insignificant at a certain threshold of trade openness.Mechanism analysis suggests that as the level of trade openness increases,the impact of fiscal policy volatility on the expansion of government debt gradually decreases.Ultimately,trade openness can weaken the significant effect of fiscal policy volatility on the expansion of government debt,thereby reducing the negative impact of the productivity effect of fiscal policy volatility on total factor productivity.

关 键 词：财政政策波动性 全要素生产率 贸易开放 函数系数模型 政府债务 

分 类 号：F812[经济管理—财政学]