金融健康背景下农户消费信贷的杠杆效应——基于农村固定观察点数据的分析  

The Leverage Effect of Peasant Household Consumption Credit under Background of Financial Health:Based on Rural Fixed Observation Point Data

作　　者：曾学文[1] 张斌 ZENG Xue-wen;ZHANG Bin(Agricultural Bank of China;Agricultural Bank of China,Postdoctoral Research Workstation;University of International Business and Economics,Postdoctoral Station)

机构地区：[1]中国农业银行 [2]中国农业银行博士后科研工作站 [3]对外经济贸易大学博士后流动站

出　　处：《消费经济》2024年第2期37-50,共14页Consumer Economics

基　　金：国家社会科学基金社科学术社团主题学术活动资助项目(23STA019)。

摘　　要：壮大农村消费市场,既要发挥好消费信贷的加速器作用,同时也要兼顾好农户金融健康问题。本文使用农研中心农村固定观察点调查数据库,实证考察了金融健康背景下农户消费信贷的杠杆效应。研究发现,消费信贷激活农村消费存在“倒U型”特征,农户适度加杠杆有利于消费扩张,并驱动其由生存型消费为主向发展型和享受型消费升级,但杠杆率过高对消费增长将形成反向抑制;进一步就异质性影响看,不同农户群体、不同地域之间的特征表现存在一定的差异。就不同群体看,以农村公共服务、私营企业经营为主要收入来源的农户相比以农业经营、务工收入为主的农户,消费信贷激活消费支出的弹性更强,消费信贷拓展空间更大;就不同地域看,中、西部地区农村消费信贷发展相对滞后,激发农户消费的边际动能不足。本文为平衡好农户消费信贷和金融健康之间的逻辑关系提供了经验证据,为精准化提升农村消费金融服务,支持农户消费信贷可持续发展提供了理论遵循。To expand the rural consumption market,we should not only give full play to the accelerator role of consumer credit,but also take into account the financial health of farmers.Using the rural fixed observation point survey database of the Agricultural Research Center,this paper empirically examines the leverage effect of household consumption credit under the background of financial health.It is found that there is an“inverted U-shaped”feature in the activation of rural consumption by consumer credit.Moderately increasing leverage of rural households is conducive to consumption expansion and drives them to upgrade from subsistence consumption to development and enjoyment consumption.However,excessive leverage ratio will form a reverse inhibition on consumption growth;In terms of the impact of heterogeneity,there are some differences in the characteristics of different farmer groups and different regions.From the perspective of different groups,rural households whose main source of income is rural public services and private enterprise operation are more flexible in activating consumer spending and have more room for expansion of consumer credit than rural households whose main source of income is agricultural operation and migrant work;From the perspective of different regions,the development of rural consumer credit in the central and western regions is relatively backward,and the marginal kinetic energy to stimulate household consumption is insufficient.This paper provides empirical evidence for balancing the logical relationship between rural household consumer credit and financial health,and provides theoretical guidelines for accurately improving rural consumer financial services and supporting the sustainable development of rural household consumer credit.

关 键 词：金融健康 消费信贷 农户消费 扩容升级 非线性影响 

分 类 号：F323.8[经济管理—产业经济]