2001-2020年巴基斯坦恐怖袭击事件时空演变分析  

Spatial-temporal evolution analysis of terrorist attacks in Pakistan from 2001 to 2020

作　　者：蔡中祥[1] 黄哲琨 郭勇[1] 公茂玉[1] 王岩 常耀伟 CAI Zhongxiang;HUANG Zhekun;GUO Yong;GONG Maoyu;WANG Yan;CHANG Yaowei(Information Engineering University,Zhengzhou 450001,China;32021 Army,Beijing 100000,China)

机构地区：[1]信息工程大学,郑州450001 [2]32021部队,北京100000

出　　处：《世界地理研究》2024年第5期60-72,共13页World Regional Studies

基　　金：国家重点研发计划(2021YFB3900900);国家军民融合发展“十四五”重大工程项目(2020ZB**);JW科技委理论项目(2022a6209)。

摘　　要：为揭示2001—2020年巴基斯坦恐怖袭击事件的时空演变规律,基于全球恐怖主义数据库收录数据,采用核密度、标准差椭圆、空间自相关等地理统计方法进行分析研究,结果表明:2001—2020年巴基斯坦恐怖主义形势经历了三个阶段,阶段转折点与政治权力交替高度吻合;空间分布从“三角形”转变为“N字形”,形成了以卡拉奇、白沙瓦、奎达为核心的3大恐怖袭击聚集区,伤亡人数的密度值显著减小,但恐袭活动范围有所增大,且卡拉奇、奎达地区恐袭密度值下降不明显;不同阶段恐袭事件的空间自相关呈现分异性,原FATA、奎达聚集区聚类特征主要为H-H特征,而卡拉奇聚集区为H-L特征;使用爆炸物的恐怖袭击频次最多,近年来,对军事、警察和记者媒体的袭击开始增多;巴基斯坦恐袭事件的演变受认同因素、政治因素、社会经济因素、地理位置因素等驱动,并被宗教极端主义和民族分离势力利用,造成巴基斯坦恐袭事件范围不断扩大、中心城市成重灾区、影响愈发恶劣等后果。In order to reveal the spatial-temporal evolution of terrorist attacks in Pakistan from 2001 to 2020,based on the data collected in the Global Terrorism Database,geostatistical methods such as kernel density,standard deviation ellipse and spatial autocorrelation were used for analysis and research.The results show that the situation of terrorism in Pakistan has experienced three stages from 2001 to 2020.The turning point of the stage is highly consistent with the alternation of political power.The spatial distribution changed from"triangle"to"Nshaped",forming three major terrorist attack clusters with Karachi,Peshawar and Quetta as the core.The density value of casualties decreased significantly,but the scope of terrorist attacks increased,and the density value of terrorist attacks in Karachi and Quetta did not decrease significantly.In different stages,the spatial autocorrelation of terrorist attack events showed differentiation.The clustering characteristics of the original FATA and Quetta clusters were mainly H-H characteristics,while the Karachi cluster was H-L characteristics.Terrorist attacks using explosives are the most frequent,and in recent years attacks on the military,police and journalists and media have increased.The evolution of terrorist attacks in Pakistan is driven by identity factors,political factors,social and economic factors,geographical location factors and other factors,and used by religious extremism and ethnic separatist forces,the scope of terrorist attacks has been expanded in Pakistan,with the central city becoming major targetted area,causing worse impact.

关 键 词：恐怖袭击 空间自相关 重心迁移 驱动因素 巴基斯坦 

分 类 号：D815.5[政治法律—国际关系] D735.3[政治法律—政治学]