延迟退休年龄、人力资本积累与经济增长  

Delaying Retirement Age,Human Capital Accumulation and Economic Growth

作　　者：耿志祥 孙祁祥[3] Geng Zhixiang;Sun Qixiang

机构地区：[1]武汉大学经济与管理学院 [2]武汉大学宁波国家保险发展研究院 [3]北京大学经济学院

出　　处：《统计研究》2024年第5期111-123,共13页Statistical Research

基　　金：国家自然科学基金面上项目“隔代照料视角下延迟退休年龄对经济增长的影响机制研究与福利分析”(71974147);武汉大学自主科研项目(人文社会科学)“延迟退休年龄、人力资本积累与经济增长研究”(201815188)。

摘　　要：本文在行为人具有家庭养老与遗产动机的假设下构建内生化生育率与教育投入的世代交叠一般均衡模型。研究表明,延迟退休年龄将在一定程度上提高均衡时的生育率和家庭总教育投入率。在不含家庭养老与遗产动机的基准模型中,延迟退休年龄会降低每个子女的教育投入,进而使人力资本积累和经济增长小幅降低,但对社会经济发展没有实质性的不利影响。当在模型中引入家庭养老保障机制时,延迟退休年龄会降低个人对父母的养老支持。当父母更重视子女数量时,生育子女数量对质量的替代关系成立,但当父母更重视子女质量时,将提高每个子女的教育投入,进而促进人力资本积累与经济增长。该影响程度虽然高于没有家庭保障机制时的情形,但影响幅度非常有限。进一步,将模型拓展到包含遗产动机的王朝家庭模型发现,延迟退休年龄将增加父母对子女的遗赠,其对每个孩子教育投入的影响取决于父母对子女福利的重视程度,且经济增长率降低或提高的幅度依然有限。This paper constructs a general equilibrium model of overlapping generations with endogenous fertility and education investment under the assumption that agents have motivations of supporting the family elderly and bequests.It shows that delaying retirement will increase fertility rate and family’s total education investment in the equilibrium to some extent.In the benchmark model without the above motivations,delaying retirement age reduces each child’s education investment,thereby slightly reducing human capital accumulation and economic growth,but it will not have a substantial adverse impact on the economy.Further,under the introduction of the mechanism of family support for the elderly,delaying retirement will reduce the children’s intergenerational support for their parents.When parents pay more attention to the number of children,the substitution relationship holds,but when parents pay more attention to their children’s quality,it can increase investment in education for each child,and then improve the human capital accumulation and economic growth.The degree of impact is higher than it when there is no family support for the elderly,but the magnitude of impact is very limited.Further,the paper employs a dynastic family model with bequests motivation to study the effects of delaying retirement on economic growth.We find that delaying retirement will increase the bequests of parents to children,and its impact on each child’s education investment depends on the parents’emphasis on children’s welfare.In addition,the extent to which the economic growth rate can be reduced or increased is still limited.

关 键 词：延迟退休 家庭养老 遗赠动机 经济增长 

分 类 号：F249.2[经济管理—劳动经济] C913.6[经济管理—国民经济]