中国绿色信贷政策对劳动力需求的冲击效应研究——来自中国一个准自然实验的证据  

Research on the Impact of Green Credit Policy on Labor Demand—Evidence from A Quasi-natural Experiment in China

作　　者：宋红雨 侯贵生[1] Song Hongyu;Hou Guisheng

机构地区：[1]山东科技大学经济管理学院

出　　处：《南方经济》2024年第6期77-97,共21页South China Journal of Economics

摘　　要：绿色低碳转型不可避免对劳动力需求造成影响。为了评估绿色信贷政策对劳动力需求的冲击效应,文章将2012年的绿色信贷政策视为一项准自然实验,从理论上探究了该政策对企业劳动力需求的影响机制。进一步,利用双重差分模型实证分析了绿色信贷政策对企业劳动力需求的影响。同时,从内部企业特征、外部环境特征和城市特征角度讨论了绿色信贷政策对企业劳动力需求的异质性影响。结果表明,第一,绿色信贷政策显著降低了重污染企业的就业。第二,资本更新效应在绿色信贷政策和就业之间表现为遮掩效应。产出效应和融资约束效应在绿色信贷政策和就业之间存在中介效应。第三,异质性分析结果表明在金融发展水平低、市场化水平低的企业中,绿色信贷政策对企业劳动力需求产生了更深的负面影响。此外,在城市产业结构水平低、数字经济发展水平低的地区以及大型企业和国有企业中,绿色信贷政策对劳动力需求的负面影响更强。文章进行了一系列稳健性检验,包括平行趋势检验、安慰剂检验、预期效应检验、控制重要政策及宏观经济环境的影响以及PSM-DID检验,稳健性检验结果均支持研究结论。文章具有启示意义,随着环境规制的继续加强,政府部门在考虑企业的减排目标时,也应考虑到其对就业的不利影响。Green low-carbon transformation has many effects on all areas of society.To evaluate the impact of green credit policy on employment,this paper regards the green credit policy in 2012 as a quasi-natural experiment and explores the impact mechanism.Firstly,this paper theoretically explores the impact mechanism of the green credit policy on the labor demand of enterprises.Furthermore,the difference-in-differences model is used to empirically analyze the impact of green credit policy on labor demand.Finally,the heterogeneous impact of green credit policy on labor demand is discussed from the perspective of internal enterprise characteristics,external environmental characteristics and city characteristics.The results show that,first of all,the green credit policy significantly reduces the employment of heavily polluting enterprises.Second,the capital renewal effect has a suppression effect between green credit policy and employment while the output effect and financing constraints effect have a mediating effect.Third,the results of heterogeneity analysis show that in enterprises with low financial development and low marketization,the green credit policy has a deeper negative impact on the employment.In addition,the negative impact is deeper in low industrial structure of city,low digital economy of city,large enterprises and state-owned enterprises.This paper conducts a series of robustness tests,including parallel trend test,placebo test,expected effect test,controlling the impact of important policies and macroeconomic environment and PSM-DID test.The robustness test results support the research conclusions.Therefore,as China continues to strengthen environmental regulations,the negative impact on employment should also be taken into account when considering emission reduction targets for enterprises.The possible marginal contributions of this paper include the following contents.First,this paper expounds the theoretical mechanism and policy effect of green credit policy affecting employment from both theoretical

关 键 词：绿色信贷政策 劳动力需求 产出效应 资本更新效应 融资约束效应 

分 类 号：F832[经济管理—金融学]