重庆市长寿区暴雨特征及基于“配料法”的暴雨预报模型研究  

Rainstorm Characteristics and Ingredients-based Prediction Model Research in Changshou District of Chongqing

作　　者：江姣 田凤国 徐元照 方丽 高松 JIANG Jiao;TIAN Fengguo;XU Yuanzhao;FANG Li;GAO Song(Chongqing Changshou District Meteorological Bureau,Changshou 401220,China;Chongqing Wanzhou District Meteorological Bureau,Wanzhou 404037,China)

机构地区：[1]重庆市长寿区气象局,重庆长寿401220 [2]重庆市万州区气象局,重庆万州404037

出　　处：《沙漠与绿洲气象》2024年第3期56-62,共7页Desert and Oasis Meteorology

基　　金：重庆市气象局2018年业务技术攻关面上项目(YWJSGG-2018010)。

摘　　要：利用2011-2018年地面常规观测、高空探测等资料分析重庆市长寿区暴雨特征,研究表征暴雨过程中水汽、动力、热力、不稳定条件的比湿、散度、垂直速度等物理参数及暴雨发生时各物理参数的阈值,构建基于“配料法”的预报模型,并对模型进行试用、检验和评估。结果表明:长寿区暴雨多发生在5、9月,影响暴雨的主要天气系统按出现频率自高到低排列依次是高空槽、地面冷锋、西南涡、切变线、低空急流,32.1%的暴雨是在高空槽、切变线、西南涡和地面冷锋的共同作用下产生的,其他天气系统配置下较少产生暴雨。基于“配料法”的主观预报方法准确率较EC提高27%,漏报率较其他模式明显减小,TS评分较EC提高0.15;客观方法准确率较EC提高16%,TS评分较EC提高0.03。This study investigated the characteristics of rainstorms in Changshou by analyzing conventional ground observations and high-altitude detection data from 2011 to 2018.The study analyzed physical parameters such as specific humidity,divergence,and vertical velocity,which were indicative of water vapor,dynamic,thermal,and unstable conditions during rainstorms.The study investigated the threshold values of physical parameters indicating the occurrence of rainstorms.An ingredients-based prediction model was developed,implemented,tested,and evaluated.The results indicate that:(1)Rainstorms predominantly occur in May and September.(2)The primary weather systems influencing rainstorms include upper-level troughs,surface cold fronts,southwest vortices,shear lines,and low-level jet streams,with occurrence frequencies decreasing in that order.About 32.1%of rainstorms were influenced by a combination of upper-level troughs,shear lines,southwest vortices,and surface cold fronts,while rainstorms rarely occurred in other weather system configurations.(3)The subjective prediction method based on Ingredients showed a 27% higher accuracy than the EC model,significantly reducing the false alarm rate compared to other models,and obtaining a 0.15 higher TS score than the EC model.(4)The objective prediction method based on Ingredients demonstrated a 16% higher accuracy than the EC model,and achieved a 0.03 higher TS score than the EC model.

关 键 词：配料法 暴雨 预报指标 模型 

分 类 号：P456.1[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]