基于灰色系统理论的油气管道腐蚀速率预测  

Prediction of Corrosion Rate of Oil and Gas Pipelines Based on Grey System Theory

作　　者：王栋 邹亚飞 耿慧晶 WANG Dong;ZOU Ya-fei;GENG Hui-jing(Collage of Architecture and Geomatics Engineering,Shaanxi Energy Institute,Xianyang 712000,China;Gas Storage Company,PetroChina,Xi'an 710016,China;Gansu Shaanxi Gas Pipeline Branch of West East Gas Pipeline Company of PipeChina,Beijing 100000,China)

机构地区：[1]陕西能源职业技术学院,建筑与测绘工程学院,陕西咸阳712000 [2]国家管网西气东输公司甘陕输气分公司,陕西西安710016 [3]中国石油天然气股份有限公司储气库分公司,北京100000

出　　处：《全面腐蚀控制》2024年第6期162-167,共6页Total Corrosion Control

基　　金：陕西能源职业技术学院自然科技重点项目(2022KY09KJZQN)。

摘　　要：随着海洋油气资源的进一步开发,更多的海底管道开始投入使用,为了保证安全生产和海洋环境不被污染,对海底管道腐蚀速率的研究至关重要。目前有许多学者针对海底管道腐蚀速率开展了研究,除了传统的实验方法,也有许多数学预测方法被使用。本文建立了基于灰色系统理论的GM(0,6)和GM(1,6)两种模型对海底管道腐蚀速率进行研究,对比了两种模型的预测精度,结果表明GM(0,6)模型预测精度更高,平均相对误差为2.98%。With the further development of offshore oil and gas resources,more submarine pipelines have begun to be put into use,and in order to ensure safe production and the marine environment is not polluted,the study of the corrosion rate of submarine pipelines is indispensable.At present,many scholars have studied the corrosion rate of submarine pipelines,and in addition to traditional experimental methods,many mathematical prediction methods have been used.In this paper,two models based on gray system theory are established to study the corrosion rate of submarine pipelines,and the prediction accuracy of the GM(0,6)model is compared,and the results show that the GM(0,6)model has higher prediction accuracy and an average relative error of 2.98%.

关 键 词：灰色系统理论 GM(0 N) GM(1 N) 腐蚀速率 预测模型 

分 类 号：TE988.2[石油与天然气工程—石油机械设备]