产业数字化与中国制造业就业——破局之策还是雪上加霜  

Industrial Digitization and Manufacturing Employment in China:A Game Breaker or an Insult to Injury

作　　者：徐学柳 张勤勤 王倩[1,2] XU Xueliu;ZHANG Qinqin;Wang Qian(School of Economics and Management,Dalian University of Technology,Dalian 116024,China;School of Maritime Economics and Management,Dalian Maritime University,Dalian 116026,China)

机构地区：[1]大连理工大学经济管理学院,辽宁大连116024 [2]大连海事大学航运经济与管理学院,辽宁大连116026

出　　处：《大连理工大学学报（社会科学版）》2024年第3期28-38,共11页Journal of Dalian University of Technology(Social Sciences)

基　　金：辽宁经济社会发展重点课题项目“中美贸易争端对我省工业的影响和对策”(2019lslktjd-024);辽宁省自然基金重点项目“资源环境约束下辽宁省产业集聚效益战略性育成与经济增长路径研究”(20170540188);中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金资助项目“双循环驱动下二氧化碳减排责任指标构建机制研究”(DUT22RW124)。

摘　　要：产业数字化是驱动制造业拓宽就业渠道、改善就业结构的新引擎。基于行业“就业难”和“用工荒”现状,分析产业数字化对中国制造业就业数量和就业结构(技能结构、性别结构)的影响机制,并从实证的角度进行了检验。研究结果表明:产业数字化对制造业就业数量和女性就业占比存在显著的正向影响,而对制造业技术人员占比存在抑制作用;通过使用印度产业数字化作为工具变量的内生性检验和使用替换核心解释变量的稳健性检验结果证明了上述影响机制的稳定性。此外,异质性检验表明,3类产业数字化行业对就业数量均存在正向作用,产业数字化基础设施行业、产业数字化交易行业不利于就业技能结构的调整,产业数字化媒体行业不利于就业性别结构的改善;总体产业数字化除对中低技术水平的制造业行业的就业技能结构具有抑制作用外,对高技术水平的制造业行业就业数量、就业结构均具有促进作用。因此,我国应牢牢把握产业数字化这一破局之策,实施差异化的数字化发展战略,加快培育一批具备技术引领和技术示范的高科技数字化行业,促使中国数字经济产业迅猛发展。Industrial Digitization is a new engine driving manufacturing industry to expand employment channels and improve employment quality.Based on the current situation of employment difficulty and labor shortage in the industry,this paper explores the influence mechanism of industrial digitalization on the quantity and structure of employment(i.e.skill structure and gender structure)in China’s manufacturing industry,and empirically tests it.The results show that industrial digitization has a significant positive effect on the number of employment and the ratio of female employees,and a restraining effect on the ratio of R&D personnel of manufacturing industry.The endogeneity test using Indian industrial digitization as an instrumental variable and the robustness test using alternative core explanatory variables prove the stability of the mechanism.In addition,heterogeneity test shows that the three digitization inputs have positive effects on the quantity of employment,and the digitization infrastructure industry,the digitization trade industry input,and the fight against skill structure.However,the digitization media industry,the fight against gender structure,the overall industrial digitization in addition to the low skills of the manufacturing industry structure has an inhibition impact while others have promoting effects.Therefore,China should firmly uphold the bottleneck-breaking strategy of industrial digitization,implement the differentiated digital development strategy,speed up the fostering of technologically leading and exemplary high-tech digital industries,and promote the rapid development of China’s digital economy.

关 键 词：产业数字化 就业数量 就业技能结构 就业性别结构 全球价值链 

分 类 号：F24[经济管理—劳动经济] F42[经济管理—国民经济] F74