房地产限贷政策松绑如何提升居民消费质量?——基于中国家庭收入调查(CHIPs)的实证分析  

How Does the Loosening of Housing Regulatory Policy Promote Household Consumption Quality?——Evidence from Chinese Household Income Projects(CHIPs)

作　　者：廖睿力 陈济冬 曹玉瑾 龚六堂 Liao Ruili;Chen Jidong;Cao Yujin;Gong Liutang(School of Public Policy and Management,Tsinghua University;Academy of Macroeconomic Research,NDRC;Beijing Technology and Business University;Guanghua School of Management,Peking University)

机构地区：[1]清华大学公共管理学院 [2]国家发展和改革委员会宏观经济研究院 [3]北京工商大学 [4]北京大学光华管理学院

出　　处：《宏观质量研究》2024年第2期29-46,共18页Journal of Macro-quality Research

基　　金：国家自然科学基金面上项目(72074133);清华大学文科建设双高计划项目(2021TSG08101);清华大学自主科研计划项目(2023THZWJC15)的资助。

摘　　要：提升居民消费水平和消费质量是坚持“以人民为中心”的重要体现,也是经济发展提质增效的有效支撑。房地产市场与居民消费息息相关,房地产市场的调控政策会对居民消费产生重要影响。我们通过构建居民消费决策和租买选择模型,分析了房地产限贷政策对居民消费的影响机制,并使用2013年和2018年中国家庭收入调查数据进行了实证检验。结果表明:首套房首付比例要求的降低有助于提升有购房(换房)需求家庭的消费水平和消费质量,尤其会促进交通、通信、教育、文化、娱乐等服务型消费;而二套房首付比例要求的提升有助于促进居民消费。首套房限贷政策松绑对消费的促进作用在购房意愿较强(人均租房面积较小)、财富水平较低或者没有当地户籍的家庭中更为明显。Enhancing domestic consumption levels and quality is a fundamental requirement of adhering to the people-centered approach,and it also promotes improvements in economic quality and efficiency.The housing market is closely linked to household consumption.In this paper,we develop a simple model to analyze the effect of the down-payment ratio as a housing loan policy on household consumption.We employ a nationwide dataset,the Chinese Household Income Projects(CHIPs)2013 and 2018,to empirically test the main implications of the model.We find that restricting the down-payment ratio for the first-owned apartment does not diminish housing demand in the short term.Moreover,this policy lowers both the level and quality of consumption for households with a strong demand for owning an apartment,particularly in services such as communication,education,culture,and entertainment.However,the down-payment ratio for the second or subsequent apartments may stimulate household consumption.The negative impact of the down-payment ratio for the first apartment on consumption is stronger among those with stronger ownership desires(indicated by smaller rental apartment sizes),lower household wealth,and migrants without local Hukou(household registration).

关 键 词：扩大消费 消费质量 首付比例政策 以人民为中心 宏观政策取向一致性 

分 类 号：F299.23[经济管理—国民经济] F832.4F126.1