余缺调剂全国统筹制度下的基本养老金时空差异研究  

Study on the spatial-temporal difference of the basic pension under the national coordination system through surplus and deficiency adjustment

作　　者：张国梅 金浩[1] 曾益[2] ZHANG Guomei;JIN Hao;ZENG Yi(School of Economics and Management,Hebei University of Technology,Tianjin 300401,China;School of Public Administration,Zhongnan University of Economics and Law,Wuhan,Hubei 430073,China)

机构地区：[1]河北工业大学经济管理学院,天津300401 [2]中南财经政法大学公共管理学院,湖北武汉430073

出　　处：《河北科技大学学报》2024年第3期298-307,共10页Journal of Hebei University of Science and Technology

基　　金：国家社会科学基金(20CRK010)。

摘　　要：为了分析余缺调剂全国统筹制度对基本养老金收支地区差异的影响,在精算预测2021—2050年基本养老金收支的基础上,用泰尔指数、空间计量经济学方法测度时空差异。结果表明:余缺调剂制度能够缓解基本养老金近期收支压力,延缓赤字时间,但无法改变远期基金缺口和地区差距扩大的趋势;余缺调剂制度能够降低基本养老金收支的地区差异,但长远来看,调剂力度越来越小,基本养老金收支依然存在明显的空间异质性;基本养老金收支存在空间依赖性,收支比高的地区和收支比低的地区呈现集中分布特征。未来需要及时充实统筹调剂金,保证统筹调剂金的长期供给,制定差异化支持政策,优化经济空间布局,以延缓养老金缺口时间,降低区域差距。In order to analyze the influence of the national coordination system under surplus and deficiency adjustment on regional differences of basic pension income and expenditure,based on the actuarial forecast of basic pension income and expenditure from 2021 to 2050,the Theil index and spatial econometrics methods were used to measure the spatial-temporal differences.The result shows that the surplus and deficiency adjustment system can alleviate the short-term pressure on the income and expenditure of the basic pension and delay the deficit time,but it can't change the trend of long-term fund gap and regional gap;The surplus and deficiency adjustment system can reduce the regional differences of basic pension income and expenditure,but in the long run,the adjustment force is getting smaller and smaller,and the basic pension income and expenditure still has obvious spatial heterogeneity;The income and expenditure of basic pension were spatially dependent,and the regions with high income and expenditure ratio and low income and expenditure ratio showed concentrated distribution characteristics.In the future,it is necessary to timely enrich the overall adjustment fund,ensure the long-term supply of the overall adjustment fund,formulate differentiated support policies,and optimize economic spatial layout,in order to delay the deficit time and reduce regional disparities.

关 键 词：管理工程其他学科 养老保险 全国统筹调剂制度 余缺调剂 基本养老金 时空差异 

分 类 号：F840.67[经济管理—保险] F810.45