基于改进STPA-DEMATEL的智能航电系统致因要素分析  

Causal factor analysis of AI-based avionics system based on improved STPA-DEMATEL

作　　者：刘嘉琛 董磊[1,3] 陈曦[1,3] 梁博尧 王鹏[1,3] LIU Jiachen;DONG Lei;CHEN Xi;LIANG Boyao;WANG Peng(Key Laboratory of Civil Aircraft Airworthiness Technology,Civil Aviation University of China,Tianjin 300300,China;College of Safety Science and Engineering,Civil Aviation University of China,Tianjin 300300,China;Department of Science and Technology,Civil Aviation University of China,Tianjin 300300,China)

机构地区：[1]中国民航大学民航航空器适航审定技术重点实验室,天津300300 [2]中国民航大学安全科学与工程学院,天津300300 [3]中国民航大学科技创新研究院,天津300300

出　　处：《系统工程与电子技术》2024年第6期2023-2033,共11页Systems Engineering and Electronics

基　　金：中央高校基本科研业务费(3122022044)资助课题。

摘　　要：针对智能航电系统在非线性耦合运行场景下产生的预期功能安全(safety of the intended functionality,SOTIF)问题,提出一种将系统理论过程分析(systematic theory process analysis,STPA)与决策试验与评价实验法(decision-making trial and evaluation laboratory,DEMATEL)相结合的致因分析框架。首先,在定义系统级危险的基础上构建安全控制结构,识别其不安全控制行为并提取与智能化缺陷相关的STPA致因要素。接下来,引入毕达哥拉斯模糊加权平均算子和闵可夫斯基距离对传统DEMATEL方法进行优化,专家根据控制反馈回路对致因要素进行评价并计算其中心度与原因度。最后,分析STPA致因要素与SOTIF致因属性之间的映射关系,给出关键致因要素的风险减缓措施。以单一飞行员驾驶(single-pilot operation,SPO)模式下的虚拟驾驶员助理系统为例说明了所提方法的可行性与有效性。研究结果表明,改进的STPA-DEMATEL方法可以有效识别关键致因要素,且能够克服专家评价的模糊性与不确定性,为智能航电系统的安全性设计提供了参考依据。Aiming at the safety of the intended functionality(SOTIF)problem of artificial intelligence(AI)-based avionics system under non-linear coupled operation scenarios,a causal analysis framework combining systematic theory process analysis(STPA)and decision-making trial and evaluation laboratory(DEMATEL)is proposed.Firstly,the safety control structure is constructed based on the definition of system-level hazards,then the unsafe control actions are identified and the STPA causal factors associated with the intelligent defects are extracted.Secondly,the traditional DEMATEL method is optimized by introducing the Pythagorean fuzzy(PF)weighted averaging operator and Minkowski distance,the experts evaluate the causal factors based on the control feedback loop and calculate their centrality and causality.Finally,the mapping relationship between STPA causal factors and SOTIF causal attributes is analyzed,and the risk mitigation measures for key causal factors are given.The virtual pilot assistant system under the single-pilot operation(SPO)mode is taken as an example to illustrate the feasibility and effectiveness of the proposed method,the research results show that the improved STPA-DEMATEL method can effectively identify the key causal factors and overcome the ambiguity and uncertainty of expert evaluation,which provides a reference basis for the safety design of AI-based avionics system.

关 键 词：智能航电系统 单一飞行员驾驶 系统理论过程分析 决策试验与评价实验法 毕达哥拉斯模糊理论 致因分析 

分 类 号：F562.9[经济管理—产业经济]