1960-2020年黄河流域农业热量资源时空演变特征  

Spatiotemporal evolution characteristics of agricultural thermal resources in the Yellow River Basin from 1960 to 2020

作　　者：张志高[1] 张秀丽 贾梦薇 陈河阳 孙梓欣 郝海姣 李卓娅 蔡茂堂[4] Zhang Zhigao;Zhang Xiui;Jia Mengwei;Chen Heyang;Sun Zixin;Hao Haijiao;Li Zhuoya;Cai Maotang(School of Resources Environment and Tourism,Anyang Normal University,Anyang 455000,China;Key Research In-stitute of Yellow River Civilization and Sustainable Development,Henan University,Kaifeng 475001,China;College of Geography and Environment,Henan University,Kaifeng 475004,China;Institute of Geomechanics,Chinese Academy of Geological Sciences,Beijing 100081,China)

机构地区：[1]安阳师范学院资源环境与旅游学院,河南安阳455000 [2]河南大学黄河文明与可持续发展研究中心,河南开封475001 [3]河南大学地理与环境学院,河南开封475004 [4]中国地质科学院地质力学研究所,北京100081

出　　处：《山西农业大学学报（自然科学版）》2024年第3期119-130,共12页Journal of Shanxi Agricultural University(Natural Science Edition)

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(42272112);河南省哲学社会科学规划项目(2022BJJ003);河南省科技攻关项目(232102320024,232102321109);河南省高等学校重点科研项目(23A170008);安阳市科技计划项目(2022C01NY019);安阳师范学院大学生创新创业训练计划项目(202310479139)。

摘　　要：[目的]气候变暖将改变农业热量资源的时空分布,对黄河流域农业热量指标进行分析,可为区域合理利用农业气候资源提供依据。[方法]基于1960-2020年黄河流域89个气象站点逐日气象资料,运用线性趋势估计和Mann-Kendall突变检验等方法分析了黄河流域年平均气温,≥0℃和≥10℃的初终日、持续日数和有效积温的时空变化特征及其影响因素。[结果]近61 a黄河流域平均气温、≥0℃和≥10℃有效积温分别以0.29℃·(10 a)^(-1)、70.23℃·d·(10 a)^(-1)和34.50℃·d·(10 a)^(-1)的倾向率呈上升趋势,≥0℃和≥10℃持续日数呈增加趋势,倾向率分别为3.33 d·(10 a)^(-1)和2.78 d·(10 a)^(-1)。≥0℃和≥10℃初日呈提前趋势,倾向率分别为—2.16 d·(10 a)^(-1)和—2.14 d·(10 a)^(-1),≥0℃和≥10℃终日呈延迟趋势,倾向率分别为1.16 d·(10 a)^(-1)和0.63 d·(10 a)^(-1),≥0℃和≥10℃初日提前的幅度大于终日推迟的幅度,≥0℃初终日和持续日数变化幅度大于≥10℃相应指标变化幅度。近61 a黄河流域年平均气温、≥0℃和≥10℃有效积温分别于1996、2003和1997年发生突变。黄河流域上、中、下游地区各热量指标变化趋势与流域整体变化一致,上游地区变化幅度相对较大。从空间分布来看,由上游、中游到下游地区年平均气温逐渐增加,≥0℃和≥10℃有效积温逐渐增加,初日逐渐提前,终日逐渐推迟,持续日数逐渐延长。[结论]黄河流域农业热量资源呈增加趋势,热量指标主要受海拔高度和年平均气温影响。西太平洋副高强度指数、太平洋副高强度指数和东大西洋遥相关型指数是影响近61 a黄河流域农业热量指标变化的主要大气环流因子。[Objective]Climate warming will change the spatialtemporal distribution of agricultural heat resources.Analyzing the heat indicators of agriculture in the Yellow River Basin can provide a basis for the rational utilization of regional agricultural cli-matic resources.[Methods]Based on the daily meteorological data from 89 meteorological stations in the Yellow River Basin from 1960 to 2020,linear trend estimation and Mann-Kendall abrupt change test methods were used to analyze the spatialtem-poral variations and influencing factors of annual mean temperature,the initial and final dates of temperature≥0℃and≥10℃,duration,and effective accumulated temperature.[Result]Over the past 61 years,the average temperature,effective accu-mulated temperature≥0℃and≥10℃showed an increasing trend with trendency rates of 0.29℃·(10 a)^(-1),70.23℃·d·(10 a)^(-1) and 34.50℃·d·(10 a)^(-1),respectively.The duration of temperatures≥0℃and≥10℃showed increasing trends,with tenden-cy rates of 3.33 d·(10 a)^(-1) and 2.78 d·(10 a)^(-1),respectively.The first date of temperature≥0℃and≥10℃showed an ad-vancing trends with tendency rates of—2.16 d·(10 a)^(-1) and—2.14 d·(10 a)^(-1),respectively,while the final dates showed de-laying trends with tendency rates 1.16 d·(10 a)^(-1) and 0.63 d·(10 a)^(-1),respectively.The magnitude of the advancement of ini-tial dates was greater than the delay of final dates for temperatures≥0℃,and the changes in the first and final date and dura-tion were greater than those of temperatures≥10℃.Abrupt changes in the annual mean temperature and effective accumulat-ed temperature≥0℃and≥10℃occurred in the years 1996,2003 and 1997,respectively,in the Yellow River Basin.The changes in thermal indicators in the upper,middle and lower reaches of the Yellow River Basin were consistent with the overall changes in the basin,with relatively greater changes observed in the upper reaches.Spatially,the annual average temperature,effective accumulated temperatures�

关 键 词：气温 有效积温 热量资源 初终日数 黄河流域 

分 类 号：S161[农业科学—农业气象学]