跨境资本流入驱动经济增长的门槛效应研究——基于跨境反洗钱监管视角  

A Study on the Threshold Effect of Cross-border Capital Inflows-Led Economic Growth--From the Perspective of Cross-border Anti-money Laundering Regulation

作　　者：李知睿 陈波[1] 侯娜[1] 李羡 LI Zhi-rui;CHEN Bo;HOU Na;LI Xian

机构地区：[1]中央财经大学国防经济与管理研究院,北京100081 [2]国泓资产管理有限公司

出　　处：《金融论坛》2024年第5期49-58,80,共11页Finance Forum

基　　金：中国博士后科学基金第73批面上资助项目“‘一带一路’我国海外能源投资政治风险预警系统研究”(2023M734076);北京市高校高精尖学科“战略经济与军民融合”交叉学科支持项目(GJJ2019163)。

摘　　要：本文以2011-2020年全球179个经济体的面板数据为样本,采用专门表征各国跨境反洗钱(AML)监管系统有效性的巴塞尔AML指数作为门槛变量,实证研究跨境AML监管在“跨境资本流入—东道国经济增长”关系变化中的门槛效应。研究表明,跨境资金转移(包括跨境洗钱)会通过放大资本流入的波动风险抑制经济增长。适度的跨境AML监管通过缓和跨境资本流入的负面影响来改善东道国经济增长趋势;过度的跨境AML监管通过加剧跨境资本流入的负面影响来持续延缓东道国经济增长趋势。This paper uses panel data from 179 economies worldwide during 2011-2020 as samples,and uses the Basel AML index,which specifically characterizes the effectiveness of cross-border anti money laundering(AML)regulatory systems in various countries,as a threshold variable to empirically study the threshold effect of cross-border AML regulation on the relationship between cross-border capital inflows and host country economic growth.Research has shown that crossborder fund transfers(including cross-border money laundering)can suppress economic growth by amplifying the volatility risk of capital inflows.Moderate cross-border AML regulation improves the economic growth trend of host countries by mitigating the negative impact of cross-border capital inflows;excessive cross-border AML regulation continues to slow down the economic growth trend of host countries by exacerbating the negative impact of cross-border capital inflows.

关 键 词：跨境反洗钱监管 跨境资本流入 东道国经济增长 面板门槛回归 

分 类 号：F831.6[经济管理—金融学] F113