基于CREAM方法的海上风机安装人因可靠性评估  

Human Reliability Analysis of Offshore Wind Turbine Installation Based on CREAM Model

作　　者：杜尊峰[1] 刘治余 杨源[1] 赵亚琦 DU Zunfeng;LIU Zhiyu;YANG Yuan;ZHAO Yaqi(School of Civil Engineering,Tianjin University,Tianjin 300354,China;Defense Industry Program Evaluation Center of SASTIND,Beijing 100039,China)

机构地区：[1]天津大学建筑工程学院,天津300354 [2]国家国防科工局军工项目审核中心,北京100039

出　　处：《中国海洋平台》2024年第3期27-34,共8页China offshore Platform

基　　金：天津市交通运输科技发展计划项目(编号:G2022-48);中海油能源发展股份有限公司科技重大专项课题(编号:HFZDZX-JN2021-01-04)。

摘　　要：采用认知可靠性和差错分析法(Cognitive Reliability and Error Analysis Method,CREAM)对固定式海上风机安装作业的人因可靠性进行评估,并引入结构熵权法和马尔可夫方法对传统CREAM进行改进,实现人因差错概率、平均人为差错时间等人因可靠性指标的定量计算。在充分结合现实条件的情况下,考虑海上风机安装的天气、海浪和操作水平等环境和人为因素的影响,针对固定式海上风机安装作业的要求和特点,结合作业人员可靠性评估结果,从操作素质、组织管理、环境改善等方面提出发展建议。The human factor reliability of the fixed offshore wind turbine installation operation is evaluated by Cognitive Reliability and Error Analysis Method(CREAM),and the traditional CREAM is improved by introducing structural entropy weight method and Markov method to realize the quantitative calculation of human factor reliability indexes such as human factor error probability and average human error time.With the full integration of realistic conditions and considering the influence of environmental and human factors such as weather,waves and operation level of the offshore wind turbine installation,the development suggestions are made in terms of operation quality,organization and management,and environment improvement in view of the requirements and characteristics of the fixed offshore wind turbine installation operations and the results of operator reliability assessment.

关 键 词：海上风机安装 人因可靠性评估 CREAM 

分 类 号：P751[交通运输工程—港口、海岸及近海工程] TM315[天文地球—海洋科学]