伊朗与也门胡塞武装的准联盟关系探析  

An Analysis of the Quasi-alliance Between Iran and Yemen's Houthis

作　　者：金良祥[1] 曹燕媚 JIN Liangxiang;CAO Yanmei(Shanghai Institutes for International Studies)

机构地区：[1]上海国际问题研究院,上海200233

出　　处：《阿拉伯世界研究》2024年第3期131-156,160,共27页Arab World Studies

摘　　要：将伊朗与也门胡塞武装关系视为“代理人”关系的观点过于强调伊朗对胡塞武装的影响力;将两者视为战略联盟关系的观点则过于强调双方关系的约束性,低估了两者之间关系的灵活性;而将两者关系视为伊朗宣传作秀的观点,又忽视了两者所存在的战略合作现实。本文认为,伊朗与胡塞武装是基于共同的反美、反以和反对地区亲美政权意识形态,且具有阶段性共同战略利益的准联盟。灵活性的战略合作是伊朗与胡塞武装双方关系的基本特点,具体而言:一是纵观双方关系的历史,战略合作集中体现在两个时间段,其他时段双方战略合作并不突出;二是双方合作以共同的战略利益为动力,包括钳制沙特以及反美和反以等;三是双方的合作内容多为伊朗对胡塞武装提供军事和政治支持,具有很强的政治性。未来,双方仍将基于共同的战略利益开展合作,但签订正式且高约束性的合作条约的可能性较小。综合来看,伊朗与胡塞武装的联系与合作会因形势和战略利益的变化而表现出灵活性:在面对共同的地缘政治威胁和有利的战略时机之时,双方会加强合作的紧密性;而在利益分歧较大、需要改善周边安全环境等情况下,双方的联系则会淡化。Viewing the relationship between Iran and the Yemen's Houthi armed forces as a “proxy” relationship overemphasizes Iran's influence on the Houthis;conversely,considering them as strategic allies overemphasizes the binding nature of their relationship,underestimating its flexibility.Conceptualizing their relationship as mere Iranian propaganda ignores the reality of strategic cooperation that exists between them.This article posits that the relationship between Iran and the Houthis is a quasi-alliance based on shared antiAmerican,anti-Israeli sentiments,and opposition to pro-American regional regimes,with flexible strategic cooperation being the fundamental characteristic of their relationship:First,looking at the history of their relationship,strategic cooperation has been concentrated in two periods,with other times showing less prominent collaboration.Second,their cooperation is driven by shared strategic interests,including containing Saudi Arabia as well as opposing American and Israeli influences.Third,the content of their cooperation is highly political,specifically manifested in Iran providing military and political support to the Houthis.In the future,the two parties will continue to cooperate based on common strategic interests,but the likelihood of signing a formal and highly binding cooperation treaty is slim.Overall,the connection and cooperation between Iran and the Houthis will demonstrate flexibility due to changes in circumstances and respective strategic interests:when facing common geopolitical threats and opportune strategic moments,they will strengthen the closeness of their cooperation;however,when there are significant differences in interests or a need to improve the surrounding security environment,their connection will become more tenuous.

关 键 词：胡塞武装 准联盟 伊朗地区战略 伊朗—沙特关系 

分 类 号：D815[政治法律—国际关系]