全域旅游的可持续发展:耦合协调度评估与未来趋势预测  

Sustainable Development of Global Tourism:Coupling Coordination Evaluation and Future Trend Prediction

作　　者：史亚奇 SHI Yaqi(School of Tourism,Xinyang Agriculture and Forestry University,Xinyang Henan 464000,China)

机构地区：[1]信阳农林学院旅游学院,河南信阳464000

出　　处：《西南大学学报（自然科学版）》2024年第7期84-93,共10页Journal of Southwest University(Natural Science Edition)

基　　金：2023年河南省软科学项目(232400410240)。

摘　　要：随着我国社会经济的发展和公众旅游意识的提高,全域旅游已成为推动旅游业转型升级和实现可持续发展的重要战略.研究以H省为例,探讨了全域旅游在促进经济、生态和社会系统协调发展方面的作用及其未来发展趋势.首先,概述了全域旅游的概念和内涵,明确了研究的理论基础和实践价值.随后,通过构建旅游经济、生态环境和社会3大子系统的耦合协调度模型,定量分析了3者之间的相互作用和影响.研究发现,尽管H省的全域旅游系统在研究期间内耦合协调度呈现波动上升趋势,但整体上显示出向更好协调水平发展的积极趋势.并且,通过采用GM(1, 1)灰色预测方法,对H省未来全域旅游的发展趋势进行了预测,预测结果表明,随着全域旅游策略的持续推进,H省全域旅游的耦合协调度将进一步改善.基于研究结果,提出了促进全域旅游可持续发展的策略建议,为地方政府和旅游业实践者提供决策参考.With the development of China s society and economy and the improvement of public tourism awareness,global tourism has become an important strategy for promoting the transformation and upgrading of the tourism industry and achieving sustainable development.Taking H Province as an example for research,this paper explored the role of global tourism in promoting coordinated development of economic,ecological,and social systems,and its future development trend.Firstly,this article outlined the concept and connotation of global tourism,clarified the theoretical foundation and practical value of the research.Subsequently,through constructing a coupling coordination model of the three major subsystems of tourism economy,ecological environment and society,quantitatively analyzed the interaction and influence among the three subsystems.The results show that although the overall tourism system of H Province shows a fluctuating upward trend in coupled co-scheduling during the research period.Overall,it shows a positive trend towards a better level of coordination.In addition,by using the GM(1,1)grey prediction method,this study predicted the development trend of comprehensive tourism in H Province in the future.The prediction results indicate that the coupling coordination degree of overall tourism in H Province will be further improved with the continuous promotion of the global tourism strategy.Based on research findings,strategic recommendations to promote sustainable development of global tourism are proposed,intending to provide decision-making references for local governments and tourism industry practitioners.

关 键 词：全域旅游 可持续发展 耦合协调度评估 未来趋势预测 灰色预测法 

分 类 号：F592[经济管理—旅游管理]