西藏“一江两河”流域2000—2020年土地利用演变及多情景预测  

Land use evolution and multi-scenario prediction of 2000—2020“One River and Two Rivers”basin in Tibet

作　　者：苏婉 邱春霞[1] 赵镠 SU Wan;QIU Chunxia;ZHAO Liu(College of geomatics,Xi an University of Science and Technology,Xi an 710054,China;School of Geography,Planning and Spatial Sciences,University of Tasmania,Hobart 7005,Australia)

机构地区：[1]西安科技大学测绘科学与技术学院,陕西西安710054 [2]塔斯马尼亚大学地理规划与空间科学学院,塔斯马尼亚州霍巴特7005,澳大利亚

出　　处：《测绘通报》2024年第6期90-95,共6页Bulletin of Surveying and Mapping

基　　金：国家重点研发计划(2017YFD0600404)。

摘　　要：针对大尺度偏远流域土地利用演变、变化驱动和土地利用预测研究较为欠缺的问题,本文利用GIS技术、地理探测器和PLUS模型等方法,基于2000—2020年5期西藏“一江两河”流域土地覆盖等数据,分析了流域土地利用的演变,探究了影响耕地变化的驱动机制,模拟了多情景下2025年流域土地利用状况。结果表明:①西藏“一江两河”流域2000—2020年土地利用空间格局发生明显变化,耕地、水域和未利用地面积呈减少趋势,建设用地和林草用地面积增加;②流域植被覆盖范围广,土地利用程度为中低等水平,综合土地利用动态度呈现先减少后增加趋势;③距水域距离、降水和高程是影响流域耕地变化的主要因素;④生态保护情景更符合“一江两河”流域未来土地利用绿色可持续发展,可为流域土地资源合理规划提供参考。Aiming at the lack of research on land use evolution,change drivers and land use prediction in large-scale remote watersheds,the paper analyses the land use evolution of the watersheds based on the data of land cover of“One River and Two Rivers”watersheds of Tibet for five periods from 2000 to 2020 by using GIS technology,geo-detector and PLUS model,and explores the driving mechanism affecting the change of cultivated land.Based on the five periods of land cover data from 2000 to 2020,we analysed the evolution of land use in the basin,explored the driving mechanisms affecting the change of cultivated land,and simulated the land use status of the basin in 2025 under multiple scenarios.The results show that:①the spatial pattern of land use in the“One River and Two Rivers”watershed in Tibet will change significantly from 2000 to 2020,with a decreasing trend in the areas of arable land,watershed and unused land,and an increase in the areas of construction land and forest and grassland.②The degree of land use in the basin with wide vegetation cover is medium-low level,and its comprehensive land use dynamics shows the trend of“decreasing firstly and then increasing”.③Distance from water,precipitation and elevation are the main factors affecting the change of arable land in the watershed.④The ecological protection scenario is more in line with the green and sustainable development of land use in the“One River and Two Rivers”watershed in the future,and can provide a reference for the rational planning of land resources in the watershed.

关 键 词：土地利用动态变化 地理探测器 驱动因子 PLUS模型 “一江两河”流域 

分 类 号：P237[天文地球—摄影测量与遥感]