推求暴雨强度公式时的年限选择方法——以景德镇为例  

Method of Selection of Years for Rainstorm Intensity Formula-A Case Study of Jingdezhen

作　　者：罗少华[1] 许彬 辛佳洁 黄彩婷[1] LUO Shaohua;XU Bin;XIN Jiajie;HUANG Caiting(Jiangxi Climate Change Center,Nanchang 330096,China)

机构地区：[1]江西省气候中心,南昌330096

出　　处：《能源研究与管理》2024年第2期61-68,共8页Energy Research and Management

基　　金：江西省科技厅江西省重点研发计划“揭榜挂帅”项目“引发的城市内涝灾害风险管理关键技术研究”(20223BBG71019)。

摘　　要：在城市化发展影响下,各地降雨资料不断增多,大部分站点都满足城市暴雨强度公式编制的最低年限要求,很多站点有40、50 a或者60 a以上资料。因此在编制暴雨强度公式实际工作中,年限要如何进行选取,对推求科学的暴雨强度公式意义重大。以景德镇为例,依据1961—2015年分钟降雨资料,采用年最大值法提取样本。从样本均值及变差系数2个方面,比较分析得到合适年限范围。采用耿贝尔分布曲线对3种不同年限样本进行拟合,最小二乘法求得参数,获得不同年限编制的3个暴雨强度公式,并进行比较。结果表明:在编制城市暴雨强度公式时,可以按照一定方法进行年限资料选择,统计所有不同年限均值以及变差系数,分析数值大小及离散程度,根据当地降水特征,规避均值低值区域及变差系数高值区域,通过百分位数法确认具体范围,综合交叉得到年限区域。合理处理好样本年限均值大小与样本年限变差系数之间的关系,得到科学的编制年限,是暴雨强度公式工作编制的基础,决定了所推求暴雨强度公式的准确性和科学性。Under the influence of urbanization development,rainfall data in various regions are increasing,and most stations meet the minimum age requirements of urban rainstorm intensity formula,so many stations have data of 40,50 years,or more than 60 years.Therefore,in the actual work of compiling rainstorm intensity formula,how to select the years is of great significance to the derivation of scientific rainstorm intensity formula.Taking Jingdezhen as an example,based on the minute rainfall data from 1961 to 2015,the annual maximum method was used to extract samples.Compare and analyze the appropriate age range from two aspects:sample mean and coefficient of variation.The Gumbel distribution curve is used to fit the samples of three different years,and the parameters are obtained by the least square method.Three rainstorm intensity formulas prepared for different years are obtained and compared.The results show that when compiling the urban rainstorm intensity formula,can choose the age data according to a certain method,count the mean and variation coefficient of all different years,analyze the size and dispersion of the values,according to the local precipitation characteristics,avoid the areas with low mean value and high variation coefficient,confirm the specific range through the percentile method,and comprehensively cross to get the age area.Reasonably handling the relationship between the average size of the sample age and the variation coefficient of the sample age to obtain a scientific preparation age is the basis for the preparation of rainstorm intensity formula,which determines the accuracy and scientificity of the rainstorm intensity formula.

关 键 词：暴雨强度公式 年限 变差系数 百分位数 景德镇 

分 类 号：P333.2[天文地球—水文科学] X321[水利工程—水文学及水资源]