某重型数控机床可靠性建模及评估研究  

Research on Reliability Modeling and Evaluation of a Heavy Numerical Control Machine Tool

作　　者：陈红霞[1,2] 李宏悦 包斯日古楞 郭春成 CHEN Hongxia;LI Hongyue;BAO Siriguleng;GUO Chuncheng(College of Mechanical Engineering,Inner Mongolia University of Technology,Hohhot Inner Mongolia 010051,China;Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region Advanced Manufacturing Technology Key Laboratory,Hohhot Inner Mongolia 010051,China)

机构地区：[1]内蒙古工业大学机械工程学院,内蒙古呼和浩特010051 [2]内蒙古自治区先进制造技术重点实验室,内蒙古呼和浩特010051

出　　处：《机床与液压》2024年第12期239-243,共5页Machine Tool & Hydraulics

摘　　要：与传统的机床相比,重型数控机床存在结构复杂、故障溯源困难、样本少、数据不足等缺点,因此对它进行可靠性研究比较困难。针对这一问题,分析某厂TH系列重型数控机床的故障数据,利用威布尔分布函数建立某重型数控机床的可靠性模型;为了获得更高的拟合精度,采用最小二乘线性回归分析法、极大似然估计法和灰色模型估计法3种方法来进行参数估计并选取最优值。通过K-S检验证明了以极大似然估计法所建立模型的威布尔分布拟合误差最小、精度最高;以极大似然估计出的模型作为可靠性评估模型,通过计算得到此系列重型数控机床的观测值与点估计值分别为298.155 0、298.675 9 h,二者基本相等,证明了模型的正确性。Compared with conventional machine tools,heavy-duty CNC machine tools have the characteristics of complex structure,difficulty in fault tracing,few samples,and insufficient data,which makes it difficult to conduct reliability research on them.Aiming at this problem,the fault data of a certain factory′s TH series of heavy-duty CNC machine tools were analyzed,and the Weibull distribution function was used to establish a reliability model of a certain heavy-duty CNC machine tool.In order to obtain higher fitting accuracy,three methods including least squares linear regression analysis,maximum likelihood estimation and grey model estimation were used to estimate the parameters and select the optimal value.The Weibull distribution model developed by the maximum likelihood estimation method has the smallest fitting error and the highest accuracy,which is proved by the K-S test.Taking the model obtained by the maximum likelihood estimation as the reliability evaluation model,through calculation,the observed value and the estimated value of the point for this series of heavy-duty CNC machine tools are 298.155 0 h and 298.675 9 h respectively,which are basically equal,proving the correctness of the model.

关 键 词：重型数控机床 可靠性建模 可靠性评估 K-S检验 

分 类 号：TG659[金属学及工艺—金属切削加工及机床]