“双碳”目标下城市群环境规制的减排效应——兼论“波特假设”与“污染天堂假说”  

The Emission Reduction Effect of Environmental Regulations in Urban Agglomerations under the “Dual Carbon” Goal:On the Porter Hypothesis and the Pollution Paradise Hypothesis

作　　者：王军[1] 高玮浓 张健 WANG Jun;GAO Wei-nong;ZHANG Jian(School of Economics and Management,China University of Petroleum(East China),Qingdao 266000,China)

机构地区：[1]中国石油大学(华东)经济管理学院,青岛266000

出　　处：《湖南师范大学自然科学学报》2024年第3期102-110,共9页Journal of Natural Science of Hunan Normal University

基　　金：山东省社科规划项目(23CJJJ40)。

摘　　要：以成渝城市群16个城市2010—2020年面板数据为样本,采用空间计量模型和非线性门槛模型考察环境规制对碳排放的影响,结果表明:成渝城市群碳排放具有空间极化性,多为高-高聚集(H-H)与低-低聚集(L-L)型;环境规制对城市碳排放的空间效果呈异质性,本地城市符合“绿色悖论”、周边城市为“示范效应”;分别以能源强度与贸易开放度作为门槛值时,环境规制对碳排放均存在显著的双重门槛效应;在门槛值较低时,环境规制对碳排放的抑制效果最强;随着门槛值增大,环境规制对碳排放的影响从抑制转为促进。因此,应充分考虑各地区差异、控制环境规制强度以保证企业利润、推动产业低碳转型,为城市群利用环境规制降低碳排放提供新的思路。Using panel data from 16 cities in the Chengdu-Chongqing urban agglomerations from 2010 to 2020 as samples,a spatial econometric model and a nonlinear threshold model were used to examine the impact of environmental regulations on carbon emissions.Results show that carbon emissions in the Chengdu-Chongqing urban agglomerations exhibit spatial polarization,mostly in forms of high-high clustering(H-H) and low-low clustering(L-L).The spatial effects of environmental regulations on urban carbon emissions exhibit heterogeneity,with local cities conforming to the “green paradox” and surrounding cities exhibiting a “demonstration effect”.When the energy intensity and trade openness are used as threshold values,environmental regulations have a significant dual-threshold effect on carbon emissions.When the threshold value is low,environmental regulations have the strongest inhibitory effect on carbon emissions.As the threshold value increases,the impact of environmental regulations on carbon emissions shifts from the inhibition to the promotion.Therefore,it is necessary to fully consider regional differences,control the intensity of environmental regulations to ensure corporate profits,promote the low-carbon transformation of industries,and provide new ideas for urban agglomerations to use environmental regulations to reduce carbon emissions.

关 键 词：环境规制 城市群 碳排放 空间计量模型 门槛检验 

分 类 号：F299.27[经济管理—国民经济] X32[环境科学与工程—环境工程]