中国城镇化发展对天然气消费的影响及异质性分析  

The Impact and Analysis of Heterogeneityof Urbanization Developmenton Natural Gas Consumptionin China

作　　者：张同蕾 ZHANG Tonglei(Economics College,Xinjiang University of Finance and Economics)

机构地区：[1]新疆财经大学经济学院

出　　处：《上海节能》2024年第6期893-902,共10页Shanghai Energy Saving

基　　金：国家社会科学基金项目“‘一带一路’建设对中国天然气贸易格局及国内价格形成机制影响研究”(20BGL289);新疆维吾尔自治区自然科学基金项目(2017D01A22);新疆财经大学校级科研创新项目(项目编号:XJUFE2023B004)。

摘　　要：研究城镇化发展对天然气消费的影响,对于推动清洁能源发展和促进可持续发展具有重要意义。基于2000-2019年30个省份的面板数据,分别运用混合回归、固定效应回归和随机效应回归将城镇化对天然气消费的影响进行了实证检验。结果表明,城镇化发展对天然气消费具有显著的促进作用。时空分异和异质性检验结果表明,城镇化发展对天然气消费的促进作用在中部和西部地区更为显著,存在区域异质性。最后,对上述回归结果进行了稳定性检验,结果显示三种回归方式均通过了稳定性检验,说明模型设定稳健。基于此,提出应提高城镇化建设质量,注重地区差异性发展,加快产业结构升级,提倡清洁能源使用,助推能源消费结构优化升级,实现经济可持续发展。Studying the impact of urbanization development on natural gas consumption is of great significance in promoting clean energy development and fostering sustainable development.Based on the panel data of 30 provinces from 2000 to 2019,the impact of urbanization on natural gas consumption is empirically examined using mixed regression,fixed effects regression and random effects regression,respectively.The results show that the development of urbanization has a significant promotion effect on natural gas consumption.The results of spatio-temporal divergence and heterogeneity tests show that the promotion effect is more pronounced in central and western regions,indicating regional heterogeneity.Finally,the stability test was conducted on the above regression results,which showed that all three regression methods passed the stability test,indicating that the model setting is robust.Based on this,it is proposed that the quality of urbanization construction should be improved,the development of regional differences should be emphasized,the upgrading of industrial structure should be accelerated,the use of clean energy should be advocated,and the optimization and upgrading of the energy consumption structure should be boosted to achieve sustainable economic development.

关 键 词：城镇化 天然气消费 多元回归 时空分异 异质性 

分 类 号：F299.21[经济管理—国民经济] F426.22