肺间质纤维化患者预后因素分析及列线图预测模型建立  

Analysis of prognostic factors in patients with pulmonary fibrosis and establishment of a nomogram prediction model

作　　者：莫尚尧 谢勇 杨丽霞[1] 李亚萍 陈熔 Mo Shangyao;Xie Yong;Yang Lixia;Li Yaping;Chen Rong(Department of Respiratory and Critical Care Medicine,The Second Clinical Medical College of North Sichuan Medical College·Nanchong Central Hospital,Nanchong,Sichuan,637000)

机构地区：[1]川北医学院第二临床医学院·南充市中心医院,呼吸与危重症医学科,四川南充637000

出　　处：《现代科学仪器》2024年第3期66-71,共6页Modern Scientific Instruments

基　　金：四川省卫生健康科研课题普及项目(19PJ223)。

摘　　要：目的:分析肺间质纤维化患者预后因素,构建肺间质纤维化患者预后列线图预测模型。方法:选择2010年1月至2018年12月我院接诊并获得随访的肺间质纤维化患者132例进行回顾性分析。采用回顾性分析的方法收集可能影响肺间质纤维化患者预后的因素,行Cox回归分析,构建列线图,并进行内部验证。结果:132例患者中存活51例,死亡81例。Cox回归分析结果显示BMI指数、6min步行距离、氧合指数、CT评分及血沉为肺间质纤维化患者的预后影响因素。列线图模型验证提示模型区分度与准确度均较高。结论:本研究建立的列线图模型可用于预测肺间质纤维化患者预后。Objective:To analyze the prognostic factors of patients with interstitial lung fibrosis and to construct a predictive model for the prognostic column chart of patients with interstitial lung fibrosis.Methods:A total of 132 patients with interstitial pulmonary fibrosis who were seen in our hospital and obtained follow-up from January 2010 to December 2018 were selected for retrospective analysis.Factors that may affect the prognosis of patients with interstitial pulmonary fibrosis were collected using retrospective analysis,Cox regression analysis was performed,column line graphs were constructed,and internal validation was performed.Results:Of the 132 patients in this study,51 survived and 81 died.Cox regression analysis showed that BMI,6-min walking distance,oxygenation index,CT score,and blood sedimentation were prognostic influences in patients with interstitial pulmonary fibrosis.The column-line diagram model validation suggested that the model differentiation and accuracy were high.Conclusion:The column-line diagram model developed in this study can be used to predict the prognosis of patients with interstitial lung fibrosis.

关 键 词：肺间质纤维化 预后因素 多因素分析 列线图 

分 类 号：R563[医药卫生—呼吸系统]