从“脆弱性”到“韧性”:中国经济在险增长的脆弱性溯源与韧性解构  

From"Vulnerability"to"Resilience":Tracing the Vulnerability and Resilience Deconstruction of China's Economic Growth at Risk

作　　者：隋建利[1] 吕文强 SUI Jian-li;LYU Wen-qiang(Center for Quantitative Economics,Jilin University)

机构地区：[1]吉林大学数量经济研究中心

出　　处：《中国工业经济》2024年第4期17-36,共20页China Industrial Economics

基　　金：国家社会科学基金重大项目“新发展格局下中国经济韧性的形成机理、动态评价与政策协同研究”(批准号21&ZD073)。

摘　　要：本文通过对风险来源进行时变贡献分解,实现在险增长的脆弱性溯源,并构建分型马尔科夫区制转移模型,从韧性结构、抵抗能力以及恢复能力等多重视阈,系统性解构在险增长的经济韧性。研究发现:①在险增长具有显著的“事件驱动”特征,在极端事件冲击下,在险增长表现出明显的下行态势。经济增长尾部风险存在显著的非对称性特征,当经济下行风险升高时,经济上行风险同样明显增加。②在险增长的脆弱性溯源结果表明,信贷投资与地方政府债务的正向驱动贡献日渐下降,股价波动仅在金融危机和股市异动时期发挥显著的负向驱动作用。步入新发展阶段,房价增速的驱动力量从早期的正向逆转为较大负值,而供应链与消费状况则在近期发挥较多的积极作用。现阶段,房地产以及地方政府债务因素能够给未来增长风险提供更加灵敏的预警信号。③分型马尔科夫区制转移概率路径表明,伴随国内经济结构转型,L型收缩概率呈现明显的上行趋势,而当经济系统面临外生的风险冲击时,U型抵抗概率将迅速攀升,此时经济具备顽强的抵抗韧性。此外,2022年后实际增长趋势与最优增长趋势再度重合,这不仅说明中国经济的恢复韧性相对较强,也意味着现阶段的“三重压力”并未构成严峻的风险冲击。The unstable rebound in economic growth indicates that the long tail effect affecting China's economic recovery has not been eliminated,and the risks of economic growth cannot be ignored.In this context,in the framework of economic growth at risk,an in-depth analysis of the vulnerability of growth at risk and the deconstruction of its economic resilience is of great guiding significance for China to strengthen risk regulation and expectationmanagement,innovate macroeconomic regulation policies,and thus achieve Chinese modernization.This paper achieves vulnerability tracing of growth at risk through time-varying contribution decomposition of risk sources.Furthermore,this paper constructs a categorized Markov regimeswitching model for L-shaped contraction and U-shaped resistance,systematically deconstructing the economic resilience of growth at risk from multiple perspectives such as resilience structure,resistance capacity and recovery capability.Results of this paper show that:Firstly,growth at risk has a significant"event-driven"characteristic,and under extreme event shocks,the growth at risk shows a clear downward trend.In addition,there is a significant asymmetry in the tail risk of economic growth.When the risk of an economic downturn increases,the risk of economic upside also increases significantly.Secondly,the vulnerability tracing results of growth at risk indicate that the positive driving contribution of credit investment and local government debt is decreasing,and stock price fluctuations only play a significantly negative driving role during financial crises and stock market fluctuations.After entering a new stage of development,the driving force of housing price growth has reversed from an early positive value to a relatively negative value,while supply chain and consumption conditions have played a more positive role.Thirdly,the probability path of the transition of the categorized Markov system indicates that with the structural transformation of the domestic economy,the probability of L-shaped con

关 键 词：衣在险增长 经济韧性 经济脆弱性 分型马尔科夫区制转移模型 

分 类 号：F124[经济管理—世界经济]