滇中高原地区干旱特性及风险分析  

Analysis of drought characteristics and risks in Central Yunnan Plateau region

作　　者：陈晶 张天力 CHEN Jing;ZHANG Tianli(Yunnan Water Conservancy and Hydroelectric Survey Design and Research Institute,Kunming 650021,China)

机构地区：[1]云南省水利水电勘测设计研究院,云南昆明650021

出　　处：《人民长江》2024年第6期114-121,共8页Yangtze River

基　　金：国家重点研发计划项目(2021YFC300205-06);云南省高层次人才及创新团队项目(2018HC024)。

摘　　要：滇中高原地区是云南省社会经济发展的核心区,也是遭受干旱灾害最为严重的区域,研究该区域干旱特性及其风险对干旱灾害防御具有重要意义。采用多元Copula函数构建综合干旱指数MDI,识别出同时涵盖气象、水文、农业3类干旱特性的综合干旱事件,据此分析区域干旱特性,进而基于自然灾害风险理论提出干旱灾害风险评价方法,根据危险度、种植率、受灾率、缺水率4个因子划分干旱风险等级,评估滇中引水工程供水前后对区域干旱情势的影响。研究结果表明:①滇中高原地区的总体干旱特征为干旱历时1.90~5.10月、烈度2.80~4.50,二者的联合重现期为2.45~3.14 a;干旱历时、烈度、联合重现期的地区分布规律均为中部楚雄、昆明、玉溪以及南部红河等州市较长(强),西部大理、东部曲靖等州市较短(弱);滇中引水工程建成通水后区域干旱呈现历时变短、烈度减弱而联合重现期增长的发展态势。②滇中引水工程通水前滇中高原区干旱风险等级为4~7级,工程建成通水后干旱风险等级较现状普遍下降1~4级,干旱风险明显降低,这表明通过实施滇中引水工程构建滇中高原水网可提高区域防御干旱灾害的能力,有利于区域国民经济的持续稳定发展。The Central Yunnan Plateau region is a key area for the social and economic development of Yunnan Province,but it is also the region most prone to drought disasters.Investigating the drought characteristics and risks in this region is crucial for regional drought defense.A comprehensive drought index MDI was constructed using the multivariate Copula function to identify comprehensive drought events that contain meteorological,hydrological,and agricultural drought characteristics,and to determine the overall drought characteristics of the Central Yunnan Plateau region.Based on the drought characteristics analysis,a risk assessment method for drought disasters was proposed based on natural disaster risk theory.The drought risk levels were divided into four categories based on the level of danger,implantation rate,affected rate,and water shortage rate,and the impact of the Central Yunnan Water Transfer Project on regional drought was evaluated.The results reflected:①The overall drought characteristics of the Central Yunnan Plateau are that the drought duration was 1.90~5.10 months,the intensity was 2.80~4.50,and the joint return period was 2.45~3.14 years.The regional distribution of drought duration,intensity,and joint return period were longer/stronger in Chuxiong,Kunming,and Yuxi that were in the central area,and Honghe in the south,while they were shorter/weaker in Dali in the west and Qujing in the east.After the completion of the Central Yunnan Water Transfer Project,the regional drought showed a development trend of shorting in duration,weakening in intensity,and prolonging in joint return period.②Before the Central Yunnan Water Transfer Project,the drought risk level in the central plateau region was generally 4~7 levels.After the completion of the project,the drought risk level generally decreased by 1~4 levels,resulting in a significant reduction in drought risk.This suggests that by building a water network in the Central Yunnan Plateau region through the Central Yunnan Water Transfer Project,the regi

关 键 词：气象干旱 水文干旱 农业干旱 干旱风险 COPULA函数 滇中引水工程 滇中高原 

分 类 号：TV213.9[水利工程—水文学及水资源] P426.616[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]