中国水资源空间转移网络及其结构韧性分析  

Analysis of spatial transfer network of water resources in China and its structural resilience

作　　者：韩梦雨 田贵良[1,2,3] 阎晓东 HAN Mengyu;TIAN Guiliang;YAN Xiaodong(School of Business,Hohai University,Nanjing 211100,China;School of Economics and Finance,Hohai University,Nanjing 211100,China;Yangtze Institute for Conservation and Development,Nanjing 210098,China)

机构地区：[1]河海大学商学院,江苏南京211100 [2]河海大学经济与金融学院,江苏南京211100 [3]长江保护与绿色发展研究院,江苏南京210098

出　　处：《人民长江》2024年第6期136-142,共7页Yangtze River

基　　金：国家社会科学基金后期资助项目“我国水权市场治理研究”(19FJYB029);国家自然科学基金面上项目“变化环境下黄河流域‘实体水-虚拟水’二维循环机理与多空间尺度流动格局优化”(42371312)。

摘　　要：水资源短缺影响人类生存和可持续发展,基于水足迹探究水资源利用的空间转移问题,对于缓解水资源短缺具有重要的意义。基于2012、2015年和2017年中国多区域投入产出表的相关数据,利用多区域投入产出模型和社会网络分析法对水资源空间转移网络及其结构韧性进行评估。结果表明:新疆和黑龙江省是水足迹输出量较大的地区,而广东、江苏、浙江和山东省等经济规模较大的省区通常是水足迹输入量较大的地区。关于水资源结构韧性指标:在层次性方面,2012~2017年网络度分布拟合曲线斜率|a|较大,这表明水资源网络的层次性明显;在匹配性方面,单个节点与其邻域之间存在更多的负相关性,并且链接路径通常是异构和多样化的;在传输性方面,2012~2017年网络的平均路径长度L在1.40~1.70之间,表明该区域的可达性和扩散性相对较大;在聚集性方面,水资源网络中的大多数地区与其他相邻区域之间的链接相对紧密,孤立区域中的节点数量较少。此外,区域水资源网络节点的聚类系数与度值之间呈现一定的负相关。研究成果可为水资源的可持续利用及合理配置提供参考。Water scarcity affects human survival and sustainable development,and exploring the spatial transfer of water resource utilization based on water footprints is of great significance to alleviating water scarcity.Based on relevant data from China′s multi-regional input-output tables in 2012,2015,and 2017,the spatial transfer network of water resources and its structural resilience were assessed using the multi-regional input-output model and social network analysis.The results showed that:①Xinjiang and Heilongjiang Provinces are regions with larger water footprint outputs,while provinces and regions with larger economies,such as Guangdong,Jiangsu,Zhejiang,and Shandong Provinces,are usually regions with larger water footprint inputs.②Regarding the water resources network structural resilience indicators:for hierarchy,the slope of the fitted curve of the network degree distribution|a|is larger from 2012 to 2017,which indicates that the hierarchical nature of the water resources network is obvious;for correlation,there are more negative correlations between individual nodes and their neighborhoods and the linking paths are usually heterogeneous and diversified;for transmission,the average path length L of the network is 1.40 to 1.70 from 2012 to 2017,indicating relatively greater accessibility and diffusion in the region;and for clustering,most regions in the water resources network have relatively strong links to other neighboring regions and fewer nodes in isolated regions.In addition,the clustering coefficients of the nodes of the regional water resources network show a certain negative correlation with the degree value.The research results can provide a reference for the sustainable utilization and rational allocation of water resources.

关 键 词：水资源 空间转移网络 结构韧性 社会网络分析 投入产出模型 

分 类 号：TV213.4[水利工程—水文学及水资源]