中国与“一带一路”沿线中东欧国家的服务贸易效率与潜力研究  

Service Trade Efficiency and Potentials of China and the CEE Countries along the Belt and Road Initiative

作　　者：喆儒[1] 韦石榴 Zhe Ru;Wei Shiliu

机构地区：[1]中央民族大学经济学院

出　　处：《欧亚经济》2024年第3期66-94,130,共30页Journal of Eurasian Economy

基　　金：2020年度国家社会科学基金一般项目“全球价值链动态演进框架下两岸产业融合关系测度及深度合作研究”(项目编号:20BGJ026)。

摘　　要：该文测算了中国和“一带一路”沿线中东欧17个国家、11类服务业的相对贸易优势指数、双边贸易综合互补指数和贸易密度指数,从多维距离角度采用时变随机前沿引力模型探究双边服务贸易的效率与潜力以及影响服务贸易非效率的相关因素,得出如下结论。第一,中国与中东欧双边服务贸易额呈持续上升态势,但占中国服务贸易总额比重很小;中国在服务贸易方面长期存在逆差,服务贸易伙伴国比较集中且与多数国家在多数年份具有较强的互补性。第二,双边服务贸易以传统服务行业为主,新兴服务行业所占比重小,但贸易联系密切的均是存在贸易互补性的新兴服务行业。第三,贸易双方的经济体量、贸易伙伴国人口数量、一定范围内的地理距离与制度距离、服务业增加值的GDP占比、经济自由程度以及是否属于欧盟成员国等因素对服务贸易额的增长具有明显促进作用;而中国人口数量及与其他国家文化隔阂则会起相反作用。第四,中国与中东欧17国的服务贸易效率处于中等偏上水平,中国与大多数中东欧国家的贸易存在低贸易效率与高提升空间共存的现象。This paper estimates the relative trade advantage index,composite complementarity index of bilateral trade,and trade intensity index,explores the efficiency and potentials as well as factors affecting the nonefficiency for bilateral service trade between China and the seventeen CEE countries along the Belt and Road Initiative.Here are the four conclusions drawn from the paper.First,China's ratio in the aggregate amount of bilateral service trade is rather small despite an increasing amount of bilateral service trade.Second,the new service sector enjoys closer trade links but is relatively smaller as the traditional sector is still taking the main part of the bilateral service trade.Third,a variety of factors such as economic and population size of trade partners,geographical and institutional distance within a certain range,the ratio of the incremental value of service trade in GDP,degree of economic liberalization,and the EU membership have positive impacts on the growth of bilateral service trade while China's population size and cultural gap is expected to have negative impacts thereon.Fourth,the efficiency of China-CEE service trade is at a high-tomedium level while high trade efficiency and low margin for enhancement coexist concerning China's service trade with the majority of the CEE countries.

关 键 词：贸易效率 贸易潜力 服务贸易 “一带一路” 中东欧 

分 类 号：F752[经济管理—国际贸易]