风险冲击、金融行为与农户可持续生计  

Risk Shocks,Financial Behaviors and Sustainable Livelihoods of Farm Households

作　　者：张崇梅 汪为 ZHANG Chong-mei;WANG Wei(School of Business Administration,Zhongnan University of Economics and Law,Wuhan 430073;School of Management,Sichuan Agriculture University,Chengdu 611130,China)

机构地区：[1]中南财经政法大学工商管理学院,湖北武汉430073 [2]四川农业大学管理学院,四川成都611130

出　　处：《山西财经大学学报》2024年第6期53-67,共15页Journal of Shanxi University of Finance and Economics

基　　金：四川省哲学社会科学基金项目(SCJJ23ND192);成都市哲学社会科学规划项目(2023BS028)。

摘　　要：选取2010—2020年中国家庭追踪调查数据,基于DFID可持续生计框架,运用Tobit模型研究风险冲击对农户可持续生计的影响,并探讨不同金融行为在其中的作用机制。结果显示:自然风险和大病风险冲击会对农户的可持续生计产生显著的负向影响;农业保险行为在自然风险对可持续生计的负向冲击中具有正向调节作用,医疗保险行为在大病风险对农户可持续生计的负向影响中具有负向调节作用,但农户储蓄行为和借贷行为的调节作用没有得到验证;不同地区农户所遭受的风险冲击类型存在显著差异。In this paper,we selected the CFPS data from 2010 to 2020,and used the Tobit model to explore the impact of risk shocks on the sustainable livelihoods of farm households based on the DFID sustainable livelihoods analysis framework,further investigating the action mechanisms of different financial behaviors.The results showed that:both natural disasters and major health incidents exerted a significantly negative impact on the sustainable livelihoods of farm households.Agricultural insurance behaviors had a positive moderating effect on the negative impact of natural risks on sustainable livelihoods,while medical insurance behavior played a negative moderating role in the negative relationship between major health incidents and the sustainable livelihoods of farm households.However,the moderating roles of saving behaviors and borrowing behaviors of farm households haven't been validated.Furthermore,significant variations existed in the types of risk shocks suffered by farm households across different regions.

关 键 词：风险冲击 可持续生计 保险行为 储蓄行为 借贷行为 

分 类 号：F323[经济管理—产业经济]